On 28 November 2025, local Russian media and then Telegram channels reported an explosion near Yasnyy in Orenburg oblast. The town is close to the old basing area of the 13th missile division.

A full video of the incident shows the missile making an effort to right its trajectory. At about 7 seconds into the flight, the first stage engine visibly fails, the missile begins to tumble, and catches fire shortly afterwards. Interestingly, at about 15 seconds, something is ejected from the head section of the missile. This could be a payload salvage sequence.

The silo that was used for the launch has been identified as one of the silos of the 621st missile regiment, located at 50.97280, 59.55149. This silo was used for Dnepr space launches in the past (Dnepr was a converted R-36MUTTH ICBM). The last Dnepr launch was in 2015, so the silo had not been used since then. However, starting in the spring of 2025, some construction activity was detected at the site.

By all indications, it was an attempt to conduct a regular ICBM test launch with the missile delivering its warhead(s) to the Kura test site in Kamchatka. Russia issued NOTAMs for Yasnyy as well as for Kura.

The type of the missile is rather difficult to determine, but most likely it was an attempted test launch of the Sarmat ICBM. The other two possibilities are a UR-100NUTTH/SS-19 missile with Avangard and an R-36M2/SS-18.

SS-19 can be ruled out as the video shows a cold launch from a silo, while SS-19 uses a hot launch. Here is an Avangard test in 2018 that shows it very clearly. Interestingly, Avangard tests also used one of the 621st missile regiment's silos, the one at 51.030849,59.690144.

As for R-36M2, the missile has not been tested for quite a while. The last launch of the missile apparently took place in October 2013. While some of these missiles may still be deployed, it is extremely unlikely that the Rocket Forces would want to test launch them.

This leaves Sarmat. Normally, Sarmat would be launched from Plesetsk, but the Yubileynaya test silo there was destroyed in a test in September 2024. No activity has been detected in Plesetsk since then, so it appears that the tests were moved to Dombarovskiy.

So, it appears to be another setback for the Sarmat program, and it appears highly unlikely that the missile will be deployed in 2025, as was announced by the Russian president earlier this month.