By all indications, a flight test of the Sarmat ICBM, scheduled to take place between 19 and 23 September 2024 (according to NOTAM, posted on September 17), ended in failure. Satellite images taken on 21 September 2024 show that the Yubileynaya silo at the Plesetsk test site (62.889364, 41.759947) has been seriously damaged. The image above is taken by Planet (via Twitter). The "before and after" images can be seen here and here.

The NOTAM notification apparently was cancelled at the end of the day on September 19th, indicating that the test was either scrubbed of failed. The first data from the satellite-based fire detection system (FIRMS) that were available at the end of the day on September 20th showed a fire at the site.

It is possible that the launch attempt was undertaken on September 19th, with fires persisting for more than 24 hours. Another possibility is that the test was scrubbed on the 19th and the incident happened during the subsequent defueling of the missile. The character of destruction suggests that the missile exploded in the silo.

Sarmat has had only one successful flight test, on 20 April 2022. There is at least one known failure, in February 2023. It appears that several other tests were scheduled but scrubbed.

UPDATE: There is also a report about a failed Sarmat test on 31 October 2023. It is not clear, however, if this report is credible. There was, however, a NOTAM notification ahead of the test that may suggest that the test indeed took place. (A post describing the event has been added to the timeline.)

On 17 September 2024, at 10:01 MSK (07:01 UTC), crews of the Air and Space Forces conducted a successful launch of an Angara 1.2 launcher from the Plesetsk test site. (Video of the launch in the MoD Telegram channel.)

The rocket delivered into orbit two satellites designated Cosmos-2577 and Cosmos-2578. They received international designations 2024-166A and 2024-166B and registered by NORAD as objects 61179 and 61180.

The satellites were deployed on 328 x 344 km sun-synchronous orbits with the inclination of 96.8 degrees. It is estimated that these are small reconnaissance satellites of the OO MKA type, which is the "test" version of "experimental" EO MKA satellites launched earlier - Cosmos-2551, Cosmos-2555, Cosmos-2560, and Cosmos-2568. See also a note on small satellites.

Russian ministry of defense reported that Imperator Alexander III, a Project 955A submarine, was transferred to the Pacific Fleet during the Okean-2024 exercise.

In November 2023, the submarine successfully launched a Bulava ballistic missile. The launch was part of the acceptance trials of the submarine.

On 17 May 2024, at 00:21:39 MSK (09:21:39 on 16 May 2024 UTC) crews of the Air and Space Forces conducted a successful launch of a Souyz-2.1b launcher from the 43/4 launch pad of the Plesetsk test site. The launcher and the Fregat booster deployed a military satellite and six small civilian spacecraft.

The military satellite received the designation Cosmos-2576 and international designation 2024-092A. It was registered by NORAD as object 59773. Cosmos-2576 is believed to be a reconnaissance satellite of the Razbeg/MKA-V type. The satellite is deployed on sun-synchronous orbit with the altitude of about 500 km.

Previous launch of a satellite of this type, Cosmos-2575, took place in February 2024.

UPDATE: Marco Langbroek suggests that Cosmos-2576 may be an inspector satellite.

Speaking at a session of the UN Security Council on 20 May 2024, U.S. representative also said that "the United States assesses [that the satellite] is likely a counterspace weapon. ... Russia deployed this new counterspace weapon into the same orbit as a U.S. government satellite." The U.S. said that the launch of Cosmos-2576 "follows prior Russian satellite launches likely of counterspace systems to low Earth orbit in 2019 and 2022." The launches mentioned appear to be that of Cosmos-2558 in August 2022, and probably that of Cosmos-2561 and Cosmos-2562 in October 2022. The 2019 launches may be those of Cosmos-2542 in November 2019 and some satellites launched in July 2019.

Starting in September 2021, Russia has launched a series of small experimental satellites the purpose of which is not entirely clear. In previous posts they have been sometimes identified as EO MKA (probably зкспериментальный образец малого космического аппарата) and sometimes Razbeg. This post collects some information about the satellites (h/t BH), primarily to serve as a reference for corrections in previous posts. It will be updated as necessary.

The first in the series of EO MKA is believed to be Cosmos-2551, launched in September 2021. It was followed by Cosmos-2555 in April 2022, Cosmos-2560 in October 2022, and Cosmos-2568 in March 2023.

Two satellites launched more recently, Cosmos-2574 in December 2023 and Cosmos-2575 in February 2024, were identified as Razbeg/MKA-V satellites No. 1 and No. 2 respectively.

The satellites were launched by Soyuz-2.1v, with the exception of Cosmos-2555 and Cosmos-2560, which were launched by Angara 1.2.

The first three satellites, identified as EO MKA, Cosmos-2551, Cosmos-2555, and Cosmos-2560, did not perform any maneuvers and decayed a few weeks after launch. The fourth, Cosmos-2568, was dormant for about four months and then started performing maneuvers. The satellite is still in orbit.

On 12 April 2024 at about 16:00 UTC the Strategic Rocket Forces conducted a successful launch of "an intercontinental ballistic missile from a road-mobile launcher." According to the official statement (safe link on Telegram, video of the launch), the launch was "part of the state tests of advanced missile systems" and it was also used "to confirm the stability of the currently deployed missile systems." The test is reported to be fully successful.

The missile is believed to be a modified Topol-M ICBM, sometimes referred to as Topol-ME, used to test re-entry vehicles of intercontinental ballistic missiles. This appears to be the second test of the missile, following the first one in April 2023.

The missile reached an apogee of about 1000 km and was seen from many places in the Middle East.

On 9 February 2024, at 10:03:44 MSK (07:03:44 UTC) crews of the Air and Space Forces conducted a successful launch of a Souyz-2.1v launcher from the 43/4 launch pad of the Plesetsk test site.

The satellite delivered into orbit was designated Cosmos-2575. It received international designation 2024-026A and registered by NORAD as object 58929.

Cosmos-2575 was deployed on a circular orbit with altitude of about 330 km, which suggests that it is similar to the small imaging satellites of the EO MKA/Razbeg type. It is believed to be the second Razbeg/MKA-V satellite. Previous launch of a satellite of the MKA-class satellites took place in December 2023.

Cosmos-2575 was deployed in the same orbital plane as Cosmos-2574. The two satellites approached each other. One approach took place on 21 February 2024, another, with the separation distance of about 10 km, took place on 12 March 2024.

On 3 February 2024, Knyaz Pozharsky submarine of the Borey-A class was rolled out of the construction hall at the Sevmash shipbuilding plant.

The construction of the submarine began in December 2016. It is the eight submarine of the Project 955/955A (Borey/Borey-A) series and the fourth serial production Borey-A submarine. Two more submarines of this class are under construction - Dmitry Donskoy and Knyaz Potemkin - both laid down in August 2021.

According to the original plan, the production of this series was supposed to stop at eight submarines. The decision to order two additional ships was reportedly made in 2018. The contract with Sevmash was signed in July 2020.

Russia began deployment of the EKS/Kupol space-based segment of its early-warning system in 2015, with a launch of Cosmos-2510 on 17 November 2015. That was the first of six Tundra launches - Cosmos-2518 in May 2017, Cosmos-2541 in September 2019, Cosmos-2546 in May 2020, Cosmos-2552 in November 2021, and Cosmos-2563 in November 2022. It appeared that the Air and Space Forces would launch one satellite annually, but I don't see a launch in 2023.

The first two satellites worked for about five years. Their station-keeping maneuvered ended in late 2020 and late 2021 respectively. This leaves the system with four operational satellites. Although the full system is supposed to include ten satellites, I believe that four can provide sufficient coverage. They appear to have true look-down capability, adequately covering everything north of the equator. Since the satellites are deployed on highly elliptical orbits, they replace each other at the apogee, so there is probably at least one satellite that is in a position to see a launch.

The system does not need ten to provide continuous coverage. Rather, the idea is to have more than one satellite looking at each point. That helps reduce false positives. Ideally one would need three to almost completely eliminate them, but it's not absolutely necessary. Having one means that operators should be on guard regarding false positives, and since they know the capability of the system, they probably are. It is also worth keeping in mind that the role of space-based early warning in Russia is quite different from that in the US. As I explained elsewhere, it's a matter of geography. So, even if there were no satellites at all, the basic function of the early-warning system would not change dramatically.

If Russia keeps the current deployment rate, about one satellite a year, and assuming that the service life stays at five years, getting to a full constellation of ten will be a challenge. Something will have to change.

At some point there was a talk about a geostationary early-warning satellite, but we haven't heard anything about it for quite some time.

On 27 December 2023, at 10:03:44 MSK (07:03:44 UTC) crews of the Air and Space Forces conducted a successful launch of a Souyz-2.1v launcher from the 43/4 launch pad of the Plesetsk test site.

The satellite delivered into orbit was designated Cosmos-2574. It received international designation 2023-209A and registered by NORAD as object 58658.

Cosmos-2574 was deployed on a circular orbit with altitude of about 330 km, which suggests that it is similar to the small imaging satellites of the EO MKA/Razbeg type. It is believed to be a Razbeg #1/MKA-V satellite. Previous launch of a satellite of the MKA-class satellites took place in March 2023.

Object 2023-209C/59022, believed to be debris, separated from Cosmos-2574 on 23 February 2024. it re-entered atmosphere around 5 March 2024. This separation took place about two days after Cosmos-2574 approached Cosmos-2575, which happened around 1500 UTC on 21 February 2024.

Later, the two satellites were positioned in close proximity again. One approach, with the separation distance of about 10 km, took place on 12 March 2024.