By the way, mobile Yars regiments are going to arm with special fighting robots:
http://function.mil.ru/news_page/country/more.htm?id=11918313@egNews

As appears from this text, the new silo Yars ICBM will be received by the 74th Bryansky regiment in Kozelsk:
http://gorodbryansk.info/2013/12/rocket_day/

Container command post of the Yars regiment was loaded into silo in Kozelsk:
http://gusst5.ru/Press/News/index.php?ELEMENT_ID=653

to Alexander Stukalin:
Dear Mr.Stukalin, does this mean that the first silo-based regiment (74th) is set on active service now?
Or will it be fully reorganized later this year?
Thanks
Bernd Reuter

2 Pavel:
Pavel, I'm sure you know this statemanet
http://ria.ru/defense_safety/20140122/990611273.html
some other sources
http://militaryrussia.ru/blog/topic-430.html
mentioned 42 Yars right now.
does this mean that we have more missiles and re-equipped regiments now at Novosibirsk and Nishni Taigil?
Thanks

to Bernd Reuter:
It has to be later. Perhaps, in December. In Russia all very much like to do everything by the end of the year.

Bernd: I'm not sure about the 42 number. But the "one regiment and two battalions" are the 15 missiles deployed in 2013 in Novosibirsk and Nizhniy Tagil - http://russianforces.org/blog/2013/12/15_rs-24_yars_missiles_to_be_d.shtml.

Hello, I am wondering if the crisis in Ukraine will affect Russias ability to build ICBMs is Russia dependent on Ukrainian industry/know how?

All new production has been already moved to Russia. Ukraine helps maintain older R-36M2 missiles, but even there the impact will be minimal.

thanks Alexander & Pavel!

Pavel: How many RS-24 do you expect this year?
10 for Kozelsk and some more mobile to arm the second regiments at Novosibirsk & Nizhny Taigil?
But that would mean that Russia is building close to 20 ICBM a year...
Thanks

It is much more difficult question.
Actually the list of the Ukrainian special export to Russia is much more volume, than it is considered to be.
It is enough to look here at this document:
http://zakon1.rada.gov.ua/laws/show/53-2012-%D0%BF/page2
Moreover, for example, the well-known Khatron company is the developer of the control systems for very interesting things -- according to official published information:
http://test.hartron.com.ua/rus/2001.html
The combination of digital indexes reminds something to You, Pavel?

I agree the situation is quite interesting. Thanks for the links. But it's the older systems that got affected. My understanding is that all new production has been moved to Russia.

Bernd: They said that the plan is to deploy 22 in 2014 - http://russianforces.org/blog/2013/11/rs-24_yars_deployment_in_2013.shtml

Dear Pavel, the Khartron link above (in the first 'NPOMash' point) tells about one absolutely new project. You even wrote here about it.

Probably:
10 in Kozelsk
3+6 in Nizhniy Tagil
6 in Novosibirsk

There are other variants.

Maximum (31):
10 in Kozelsk
3+9 in Nizhniy Tagil
9 in Novosibirsk

Minimum (22):
4 in Kozelsk
3+9 in Nizhniy Tagil
9 in Novosibirsk

Sorry, in minimum variant 3+6 in Nizhniy Tagil.

It depends on what actual quantity of Yars rockets Russian Ministry of Defence has gotten from industry. 22 Yars will be in 2014. But he possibly has gotten rockets in 2013, which did not enter to a service due to late construction in missile divisions. For example, there were only 6 Yars in Nizhniy Tagil, but maybe they had 3 more rockets in storage.

Alexander: Yes, very interesting. Thanks for the hint. But it's a bit strange - it was a while ago, in 2001. I mean we know things are moving slowly, but still. Are you sure you meant "the first item" when you said about a new project? Just thinking out loud:

As far as I can tell, 15F355 is a standard UR-100NUTTH warhead (warhead section?) - some were transferred to Russia back in the 1990s. What I can find on "Zaryadie-1B" is that a launch under this "theme" was expected in October 2006 from Baykonur. Was it moved to November 2006? So, it appears that the first item is about some modification of the standard warhead/bus.

The second item - 15Yu71 - seems to be more interesting. It is mentioned in the Project 4202 context in some interesting discussions and it appears that there is a reason we see "71" here and in the A35-71 complex in Dombarovskiy. The Khartron page seems to refer to a launch conducted in 2001. Do we know if there was a launch of something like that in 2001? My records don't go that far back.

OK, Pavel.
The 'second item' (without any discussions) will mention in this open official document - at first we read page 36 attentively and then study the table on page 31:
http://www.uniikm.ru/file/2011/year_report_uniikm_za_2011.pdf
Now as for launches and 2001...
From the summary launches table for 1991-1997 it is visible that two launches were every year in 1991 and 1992 and only one every year later - in 1993-1997:
http://kik-sssr.ru/Hronology_ONIS_43.htm
The next years are easily restored by monitoring of the official MoD statements reported via the main Russian news agencies. These are as follows:
1998 – one (October 7)
1999 – one (October 20)
2000 – one (November 1)
2001 – two (June 27 and October 26)
2002 – one (December 10)
2003 – one (December 5)
2004 – two (February 18 and August 11).
Resource extension standardly demands one test launch in a year. The known event of 2004 allows to assume why the second launch (most likely June) was required in 2001.

Okay. So, I take it that the June 2001 launch was a predecessor of the one in 2004. Still a bit strange that it is taking that long to complete the program. At least they promise to start serial production in 2015. I guess Dombarovskiy will be ready by then. Very interesting.

Dombarovski
the former 10 silo regiment 621 seems to be under re-construction.
e.g. "fly" to thes coordinates 51.064015° 59.600843°
and open panoramio
http://mw2.google.com/mw-panoramio/photos/medium/98359575.jpg
what can we expect:
1. preparing for RS-24 in a 10 msl regiment?
But I wouldn't understand why not to use silos at Kozelsk. There we have the 74 Regiment but 20 more existing silos (ex SS-19) which could be used (30 more silos seems to be not more serviceable as can be seen in google earth).
To use the RS-24 would mean a major "re-construction" of the Dombarovski silos.
2. a sort of SS-19 with a revolutionary new "big" warhead
3. already preparing for Sarmat heavy ICBM

Any thoughts?
Thanks

As I understand, it's a bit too early for Sarmat. It appears that the work in Dombarovskiy is about some new missile.

Weren't some Topol-M silos created by pouring concrete into old UR-100NUTTH silos?

Any Topol-M derived missile (RS-24, Avangard, etc) wouldn't need a sophisticated hole in the ground, since they are all cold start.

ss-18 silo conversion for topol firings was demonstrated at pl former site 22 (old us designation) back in the nineties.

this new missile might be kind of a ss-19 with something like an albatros (requires deeper silo) at domba, probably.

Back in the START II days in the 1990s there was an idea that some SS-18 silos could be preserved for single-warhead missiles. START II even had a procedure for that. I didn't have any information about a test launch though. Do you know a more accurate date?

As of the new missile, yes, everything seems to point at an Albatros-like system.

to anonymous:
I think the silo which you mentioned is here
62.889830°_41.760372°
http://up.picr.de/18088939jl.jpg
It is fitted with a ring adapter. I always thought it would be a former SS-13 silo which was converted to SS-24 and then for Topol-M (using the adapter ring).
I didn't know that they really build him as SS-18 (39m) silo and then converted him to Topol-M.
Thanks

2bR: the sequence is correct only "satan"'s simulation meant dig existing ss-24 silo wide rather than deep. adapter ring is the key.

2Pavel:
Hans Kristensen published a figure for RS-20 which is 46 msl
http://bos.sagepub.com/search?fulltext=ICBM&sortspec=date&submit=Submit&andorexactfulltext=phrase&src=selected&journal_set=spbos
I'm wondering that after all the statements about keeping these missiles in service up to the early 20ties the figures are declining rapidly.
Only recently we discussed about 58 or 55 or 52 msl.
I assume that another 6 msl regiment has been suspended at Dom, bringing the number down from 24 to 18 msl.
Do you have any information about it?
Thanks

Bernd: Hans said he got this number by looking at satellite imagery and counting regiments that appear operational. Maybe. It's worth checking.

Well..I think he has better sources for satellite images than to look at GE or Bing :-)
Those standard sources do not show any changes.
There are still 4 Regiments (6 msl each) and we can see another Regiment which has two silos dismantled and 4 still in existence.
Well...one day a future update will show
Thanks

Maybe the rapid reduction of SS-18 numbers has something to do with the Ukraine Crisis.
On 12 February 2008 a Russian-Ukraine agreement was ratified to extend the service life of RS-20.
This agreement established that Ukraine would assist Russia in maintaining systems that have beeen on combat duty for the past 15 years for a further 10-15 years. With this agreement in force, Russia would not need to decommission the existing missiles.
Maybe things changed and the reliability of this support is questionable, which leads to a philosophy to decommision these missiles more rapidly and to boost pure russian systems.

2pavel: if so, why don't you ask him coords of active lcc at dom? 'cause all available imagery (+panaramio photos) show four regs there.
assuming hk ordered and paid for something new that can not be displayed.

Well...there are definitely two deactivated silos of former 206 regiment:
50.837875°59.595079° and
50.884145°59.732269°
see Panoramio Pictures.

Assuming that they will not continue with an incomplete regiment all of 206 should be closed.
That leads to the "24 silo assumption".

But...there seems to be another removed silo over here 51.164636° 60.263296° (see Bing or Yandeks)
This one belongs to the 494 regiment.
If the other 5 are also deactivated we would have the "18 msl assumption" of Hans :-)

But in the field of the 767 regiment is a removed silo too:
51.294483°60.886718°
I'm really not sure whether they operate incomplete fields...if so this would be another regiment already ceased.

The remaining Regiments would have only 12 silos (together with Uzhur this would be 40):
368:
51.036845° 59.959103°
51.093446° 59.844403°
51.155185° 59.748975°
51.206886° 59.850171°
51.168288° 59.967785°
51.097375° 60.087414°
175:
51.270544° 60.298231°
51.248791° 60.142652°
51.339240° 60.163436°
51.259280° 60.461584°
51.379239° 60.372617°
51.346808° 60.472835°

Can someone inform..
To Pavel..
how many launchers Russia is planning at Dombarovskiy..

Orenburg is a huge "country" .. isthis missile regiment concentrated at one located..
The RVSN informed in 2013 that it is "working" on a regiment at Dombarovskiy..How many missile that could be..?

correction:
494 & 767 regiments have still there 6 silo structure. No silos are missing - I was wrong:
494:
51.177303° 60.222120° (Yandeks)
51.185256° 60.391675°
51.097151° 60.355889°
50.994231° 60.389985°
50.972916° 60.242592°
51.062927° 60.211899°
767:
51.301762° 60.728838°
51.264975° 60.859075°
51.202009° 60.765469°
51.147009° 60.675731°
51.241195° 60.607047°
51.301762° 60.728838°
together with 368 & 175 regiment (see previous post) we have 4 complete regiments regarding the open sources google, Bing, Yandeks, Terraserver.
That is 24 msl.

Regarding the Panoramio pictures two silos of 206 regiment are deactivated
50.837875° 59.595079°
50.884145° 59.732269°

The question is whether they operate an incomplete regiment with 4 msl. If so we would have 28 msl. IF not we have 24.

HKs thesis cold be based on any satellite images which are not published yet. But if he also relies on common sources he is wrong with his 18msl thesis.
Cheers

Bernd: Thank you. As I understand, Hans counted the 175th regiment as non-operational. Which is apparently not the case.