On 19 May 2026, the Russian Ministry of Defense announced that it will hold an exercise "to prepare and use nuclear forces in the face of the threat of aggression" in the period of 19-21 May 2026. It was said to include "over 200 missile launchers, more than 140 aircraft, 73 surface ships, and 13 submarines, including 8 strategic missile submarines." The scale suggested that the non-strategic part of the exercise and Belarus' participation is accounted for as well.

The objective of the exercise may deserve a note - a more accurate translation would be "on the preparation and employment of nuclear forces under conditions of a threat of aggression." This formula has not been seen before. What is notable here is the use would not be in response to aggression, but rather "under a threat of aggression."

The timing of the exercise is also rather unusual. Normally, large exercises of strategic forces take place in the fall. One infamous exception is the exercise that was moved from the fall of 2021 to 19 February 2022, a few days before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. It should be noted that the 2022 exercise involved non-strategic nuclear weapons, just like this one. On the other hand, there was a precedent of an exercise held in May, in 2014, so it is not entirely unprecedented.

Judging by NOTAMs, the original plan was to conduct the exercise around 9-11 May 2026. It is not clear why it was postponed.

In the end, the strategic part of the exercise took place on 21 May 2026. It involved a launch of a Yars missile from a Krona shelter at the Plesetsk test site. The previous Yars launch was conducted as part of the October 2025 exercise.

There were two launches from the Barents Sea - of a Tsirkon missile from a surface ship and of a Sineva SLBM from a Project 667BDRM/Delta IV submarine. The previous launch of Sineva took place in October 2025.

The aviation component of the exercise included Tu-95MS bombers taking off from the Ukrainka base to launch their air-launched cruise missiles and a MiG-31 aircraft taking off with a Kinzhal missile (the originally posted video showed the process of loading Kinzhal on the aircraft).

Finally, Belarusian crews conducted a launch of an Iskander ballistic missile from the Kapustin Yar test site.

It is not clear why Russia held a major strategic exercise in May and not in the fall as it normally does. The parallel with 19 February 2022 looks rather ominous, especially if you note that 2022 was also unusual in that it included launches of Tsirkon (from a submarine) and Kinzhal. Back then there was also a launch of a Kalibr cruise missile (from a submarine). Nothing similar happened this time. And it was cruise missile Iskander in 2022, not the ballistic one. But these differences are not significant. I guess we will find out soon if there is something to it.