Pavel,

Where is this treaty data published?

Thanks.

Nate

Nate, here is the URL for US State Department's website:

http://www.state.gov/t/vci/rls/prsrl/2008/102844.htm

Frank Shuler
USA

So none of the remaining Typhoons have SS-N-20 missiles? Have more information about this? Kommersant newly published some info about the readiness of the russian navy with a complete ship list, at least two of the Typhoon were listed as operative or in reserve. Without missiles these submarines can be removed from the list..

Hallo Pavel!
Some Questions. I closely monitor your data and I'm a little bit confused now.
The link which Frank provided says:
201 SS-25.
Even when I leave out Kansk, then I have the following:
Novosibirsk: 45
Teykovo: 27
Vipolzovo: 18
Yoshkar-Ola: 27
Irkutsk: 27
Barnaul: 36
Nizhniy Tagil: 36
that's a total of 216

122 SS-19.
I have:
Tatishevo: 60
Kozelsk: 50
that's a total of 110

104 SS-18.
I have:
Dombarovskiy: 41
Uzhur: 34
that's a total of 75

Please can you help to clear my confusion...Thanks in advance

Bernd: There is a difference between deployed launchers and missiles. The State Department site gives the numbers for launchers.

Rick: Typhoons were decommissioned a long time ago - in 2004. The reason they are listed as active in START is that submarines are considered operational until they are physically dismantled. This process takes time.

Bernd Reuter
Rick

Start “counting rules” are much different than existing nuclear delivery systems. That’s why for example the nuclear inventory of Ukraine, long gone, is still counted by START. Other examples are the four Trident-class submarines converted to cruise missile boats that are still considered strategic submarines and their launch tubes are counted in START. So is the B-1 bomber; long decertified to carry nuclear weapons. There are only 94 surviving B-52H bombers in the fleet not the 142 stated which included the old B-52G aircraft long in retirement. In fact I believe only recently, the only surviving Minuteman II silo, which had been converted into a museum, was taken off the list as an “operational” launcher in START. The same is true for the Russian Typhoons and their SS-N-20 missiles.

Frank Shuler
USA

Actually, the submarines don't have to be dismantled, they just have to be converted or eliminated in accordance with the Conversion or Elimination Protocol to the START Treaty. The procedures for conversion or elimination are in there but basically they consist of a) removing the launch tubes, b) cutting the launch tubes in half and c) leaving the launch tubes in the open for a period of time for national technical means to capture the elimination of the launcher. Theoretically you could do that and still have a seagoing hull.

Also, the definition of a deployed missile in START terms i.e., not in real life common sense terms, is that a missile considered deployed if there is a launcher available for it. So, if there is a Typhoon with 20 launchers at the dock in Severodvinsk and the missiles for it are in storage bunkers somewhere else, those missiles, in accordance with START counting rules, are deployed.

What the State Department website isn't showing is the number of non-deployed missiles, I.E. missile in storage sites for which there are no available launchers.

Frank, may you list here the American strategic arsenal?

Thanks

So how many actually usable nuclear devices are in each countries arsenal? Is your websites data an accurate summary?

Feanor: It very much depends on the definition of "usable".

Kolokol:

I’m assuming you want a general review of the existing American nuclear inventory. Here’s my best guess how the SORT inventory will look; just my opinion. (SORT to be declared by December 31, 2012 but the US is expected to reach inventory limits by year’s end, 2008)

Today, the US deploys 450-silo Minuteman III ICBMs. These missiles deployed since 1970 are now expected to remain in service until replacement in 2028. (58 years in service). The MMIII force is being equipped with the new Safety Enhanced Reentry Vehicle (SERV) and will deploy with 500 warheads, either W78 or W87s. Apparently the SERV can deploy with one or two warheads and 50 of the Minuteman IIIs will carry two W78 nuclear weapons.

Our strategic bomber force is composed of 76 B-52H bombers (56 combat capable) with the last entering service in 1962. The US also has 18 additional B-52H bombers kept in non-flying storage, for a total inventory of 94 airframes. The US has 16 combat capable B-2 Stealth Bombers out of a total inventory of 20 aircraft. Weapons include the B61 and B83 nuclear gravity bombs and the non-stealth Air Launched Cruise Missile (ALCM) with the W80 nuclear warhead. The United States Air Force wants a new bomber in 2018 but it remains to be seen if this new aircraft will be designed to carry nuclear weapons (the prevailing opinion today is that this platform will be unmanned and not certified to carry nuclear weapons).

The Trident fleet is 14 boats with 12 deployable and armed with the only new missile now being purchased, the Lockheed Trident D5. The Trident Missile is being downloaded to four warheads to comply with SORT. Warheads include the W76 and the W88. Trident is being service-life extended until 2038 when it will be replace with a new design.

To recap, the United States Air Force (USAF) wants a new bomber in 2018, a new ICBM in 2028, and Trident is expected to be replaced in 2038 when the newest submarine, the USS Louisiana (SSBN 743), will be 41 years old.

SORT Totals:
2200 deployed warheads

500 Minuteman III warheads
1152 Trident D5 warheads
548 Bomber nuclear weapons

Frank Shuler
USA

Ones that can be dropped on the enemy in a conflict.

Frank:

I am intrigued with your 2038 replacement year for the Trident. Even the COMNAVSUBFOR has not even guessed on a year for the new boats. They have barely even started R&D on a new boat. While there may be some excellent designs out there from reputable companies, no serious thought has been put forth yet.

As for the four boats being converted to SSGN's. I must thank Russia for pulling out of START II which allowed these wonderful machines to exist.

Rich

> SORT Totals:
> 2200 deployed warheads
> 500 Minuteman III warheads
> 1152 Trident D5 warheads
> 548 Bomber nuclear weapons

- Frank, it could be good to have a summary on strategic missile delivery platforms also, in the same form of 'separate list' (and not 'blind' numbers in the text).

It could provide more clear understanding. ;-)

Frank:
Pls help me up...
What's with the B-1? Are they in the process of retirement or are they simply "converted" and considered as conventional bombers, now (- although it would be hard for me to understand why this means it would be impossible to reload them with nuclear bombs if needed...)?
It would be amazing to withdraw a more capable aircraft than B-52 (and B-2) and take them out of service...

> The MOU specifies that "1 (one) road-mobile test launcher for the prototype RS-24 ICBM is located at test range Plesetsk." The launcher is put in a category of its own, most likely deliberately - to avoid answering questions about the relation between RS-24 and Topol-M.

- Pavel, do you ever had a thought that Russia do not need any 'dubious tricks' in the field of transparency of Russian's nuclear forces?

- I can bet that Russia is highly interested to show itself as a reliable partner in the field of strategic weapons monitoring; to conclude, I can only say that, during the last decades, the Russian slogan in the field of strategic weapons monitoring was 'the honesty is the best policy' ("честность - лучшая политика").

That's why I am critical to your idea that RS-24 launcher 'is put in a category of its own, most likely - to avoid answering questions about the relation between RS-24 and Topol-M'.

In other words: if RS-24 TEL do placed into 'it's own category', - it just means that there's some technical reasons to place it in 'it's own category'; please see below.

> No technical characteristics of the new "prototype missile" are listed.

- I stay at my earlier point: RS-24 may use Topol-M as a prototype, but PROBABLY it is not 'just a MIRVed Topol-M'; the main difference between Topol-M and RS-24, should be:

(a) Increased launch mass of RS-24 (let's say, by 10 % - from 47 to 52 tonns); that's why RS-24 TEL 'is put in a category of its own';

(b) Bigger throw-weight of RS-24, in comparision to Topol-M (I may only guess somewhere between, let's say, - 1400 kg and 2000 kg). Topol-M have a great 'modernization potential', relative to it's throw-weight.

To journalists: it's just my private opinion, not 'blog owner point of view'. :-)

Rich

The 2038 date came out of Congressional testimony and has as much to do with the service end of Trident than anything else. The Navy brass is already beginning the argument that Trident’s successor should be funded out of a dedicated defense department budget organization, such as done with the Missile Defense Agency (MDA) today. The Admirals fear Trident’s successor will only gut the shipbuilding budget for years. I think at this point, the 2038 date is an educated guess.

Frank Shuler
USA

Bernd Reuter

The B-1B bomber was de-coded from the nuclear mission in the early 1990’s. Originally, START II allowed Russia and the United States to convert an exiting nuclear capable aircraft to a conventional, non-nuclear aircraft that would not be counted in START II. Such a conversion was to be “once only”; the aircraft could not by treaty return to the nuclear mission. The US made the decision to so convert the B-1B. When START II failed to be ratified, the US made the decision to convert the B-1B regardless. There are now 66 B-1Bs in the active inventory.

Frank Shuler
USA

It's April 12, 2008.

It's time to remember Soviet cosmonaut and communist Yuri Gagarin, and his R-7 ICBM that open to humankind a road to outer space.

It's time to remember April 12, 1961.

Yuri Gagarin was not only a hero of the Soviet Union but to the world. His achievement was one of the “greats” of aviation and opened the door to space travel and exploration. On April 12, 1961, before the main engine of the Vostok 3KA spacecraft was fired, space flight was a theory. After liftoff and 1 hour and 48 minutes later, all was possible.

Frank Shuler
USA

> Yuri Gagarin was not only a hero of the Soviet Union but to the world.

- Frank, thank you for the good words and understanding.

News from Kazan, Russia: until the end of April 2008, Russian Air Forces will receive another Tu-160 strategic bomber.

A few things. Is this the same bomber that was supposed to have been finished in 2006? Also I recall seeing in an article mentioning several other bombers to be delivered before the end of the year. The several others are simply modernizations rather then whole new bombers right? And finally does the production rate of Tu-160's exceed the retirement rate of the Tu-95's?

Second regiment of Topol-Ms will be deployed in 2008:

http://armstass.su/?page=article&aid=54161&cid=25

> Second regiment of Topol-Ms will be deployed in 2008.

- As I understand, two regiments, 3 divisions each, - it's 18 mobile Topol-Ms deployed till the end of 2008.

Additionally to 48 (or may be 50) silo-based Topol-Ms.

- So, the total to the end of 2008 should be 66 - 68 Topol-Ms deployed, I think.

> Second regiment of Topol-Ms will be deployed in 2008

- URL has been changed, the new one:

http://armstass.su/?page=article&aid=54161&cid=44

'New Bomber for the Russian Air Forces':

http://news.mail.ru/politics/1734693/print/

- Tu-160 mentioned above will come to Engels base today.

- An official ceremony of Tu-160 transfer to the Russian Air Forces, announced to be shown today, April 29, 2008, after 14:00 MSK on the 'Vesti' informational channel; so I'll try to record this ceremony via TV tuner, convert this video to the appropriate format, upload to the net and provide here the direct link.

- According to the above article, 'Russian Air Forces will get 3 modernized Tu-160 every year; modernizations (more exactly, - 'further digitizations') will include installation of new navigation and weapon control systems.

> Deployment of silo-based Topol-M missiles continued in Teykovo - 4 missiles were accepted for service there.

- Probably, you mean 4 SILO-based Topol-Ms in Tatischevo.

Russian: Thank you. I corrected the entry.