This video that appeared online on December 10, 2018 shows an apparent failure of a missile launched from the Kapustin Yar test site. By the size of the fireball it seemed like a large missile, probably an ICBM. And indeed, the next day LiveJournal user e_maksimov (of the Burevestnik launch site at Novaya Zemlya fame) presented good evidence that it was a launch from the launch complex No. 107 of the Kapustin Yar test site. This made him to conclude that it was a failed launch of a Topol-E missile - a Topol ICBM modified to test payloads in launches from Kapustin Yar to Sary-Shagan. Later, the same user found a NOTAM notice that supported his Topol-E hypothesis. (UPDATE: That NOTAM is for December 11-15, but there is an earlier one too.)

It all looks quite convincing to me, so the event should probably be counted as a Topol-E failure. These kind of launches (but not failures) have been, in fact, fairly common. The most recent one was about a year ago, in December 2017.