It looks like the deployment of RS-24 is delayed for more than a month or two. The Vedomosti newspaper quotes a source in the Ministry of Defense as saying that the deployment will begin in 2011, after one or two additional flight tests. The source also said that the missile will carry three warheads, which apparently confirms my old estimate - MIRVed Topol-M could carry three warheads with yield of about 400 kt each.
The book
Comments
pavel: are you in the know whether they finished depolyment of the second regiment of Topol-M at Teykovo...and does that mean that there are no more SS-25 at this base at the end of 2009?
Thanks
Bernd
Does the delay have anything to do with the START negotiations? Or, is this a technical/manufacturing issue?
Frank Shuler
USA
In 2009 the Russian Strategic Missile Forces (RVSN) announced the plan to finish until the end of the year the deployment of the second ground-mobile missile regiment with 3 single-warhead SS-27M2/RS-12M1 and to begin with the introduction of the first 3 multiple-warhead SS-27M3/RS-24 inside the 54th guards missile division of the Teykovo ICBM base.
It is very likely and obvious that the equipping of the last missile battalion with 3 road-mobile launchers in the missile operating base Teykovo-4 was completed in December 2009, and that this deployment was carried out discreet and without any official announcement with regard to the START follow-on negotiations maybe shortly before a signing ceremony with the US and Russian presidents.
Furthermore it was published in 2009 to continue with the deployment of the silo-based SS-27M1/RS-12M2 in the Tatishchevo ICBM base. Because Russia in early 2009 produced at least 2 SS-27M1, also it is likely that the 60st missile division in Tatishchevo has deployed this ICBMs at the end of 2009. If this estimate is correct, the RVSN has 70 "Topol-Ms" on alert, 52 deployed SS-27M1 and 18 deployed SS-27M2.
The first deployment of the uploaded SS-27 model RS-24 in December 2009 was postponed until the next future. The news agency RIA Novosti on 15 January 2010 quoted a Russian Defense Ministry source in the newspaper "Vedomosti" who said that "the missile could be placed on combat duty starting in 2011 after one or two more successful launches." According to this source the RS-24 has three multiple independently targetable re-entry vehicles (MIRVs) instead of "no less than four" to six multiple warheads from other official Russian sources.
In this situation it is possible that the RVSN in 2010 will focus its priority on the deployment of the silo-based version SS-27M1. If Russia produce 8 SS-27 ICBMs in 2010 (including one RS-24 test missile) the RVSN theoretical can deploy 8 SS-27M1 until the end of the year with six complete launcher groups and a total number of 60 SS-27M1 in Tatishchevo. This scenario suggests that the deployment of the ground-mobile SS-27M2 in Teykovo is finished with 18 ICBMs and will not continue. In 2011 the RVSN can deploy the first missile battalion with 3 road-mobile SS-27M3/RS-24 launchers in Teykovo. But other constellations are possible in this context and it is important to understand what the United States and Russia will agree in the START follow-on treaty relating multiple-warhead and mobile ICBMs.
"Topol-M" production and deployment:
........................................2009
............................produced....deployed
SS-27M1/RS-12M2.......3............2 (52)
SS-27M2/RS-12M1.......5............5 (18)
SS-27M3/RS-24...........0............0 ( 0)
_________________________________
Total...........................8............7 (70)
........................................2010
............................produced....deployed
SS-27M1/RS-12M2.......7............8 (60)
SS-27M2/RS-12M1.......0............0 (18)
SS-27M3/RS-24...........1............0 ( 0)
_________________________________
Total...........................8............8 (78)
(compare the comment under "Last START data exchange?")