These two charts show the projected changes in the composition of the Russian strategic forces as new systems are replacing the old ones.

The charts make moderately cautious assumptions about operational readiness of Project 955 submarines and the Bulava missiles. I also assumed that all Topol-M missiles will carry three warheads after 2009 - I'm afraid this is where we are going. The charts count all Tu-95MS bombers as carrying six cruise missiles, so there is a small discrepancy with the numbers posted in the overview section of this site.

I know that if you look at that picture from the "bean-counting" cold-war perspective, it may look bleak. But if you ask whether this force will be able to do what it is supposed to do - provide Russia with deterrence capability - it is more than enough (and I would note here that MIRVing Topol-M does not add anything to that deterrent). Then, there is a different and much more interesting question - does Russia need a nuclear deterrent at all? But this will take us too far from the bean-counting charts on the left.