The Strategic Rocket Forces released new numbers on the status of the land-based missile force. The main change is in the number of Topol/SS-25 missiles - only 270 of these are operational today, down from 291 declared in the July 2005 START data exchange. (This is in addition to the decomissioning of five R-36MUTTH/SS-18 missiles announced earlier.)
It is unclear, however, which divisions got cut. One is certainly the division in Yurya (12 missiles). It's tempting to guess that the rest of the 21 decomimssioned Topol missiles came from Teykovo, making the room for Topol-M deployment there, scheduled for this year, but we just don't know.
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Apparently in the just released 2006 Quadrennial Defense Review, the number of American Minutemen III ICBM missiles is being reduced from 500 to 450. No information if the United States intends on reducing deployed nuclear warheads associated with these missiles. I suspect the US Air Force will begin development of conventional warheads for its Minuteman force as part of its new “Global Reach” strategy. Perhaps, these 50 ICBMs will be so converted.
Frank Shuler
USA
Jeffrey Lewis posted a detailed analysis of these 50 Minutemants a few days ago: http://www.armscontrolwonk.com/960/stratcom-hearts-mirv.
Jeffery Lewis seems too preoccupied with the plans the US Government might have with 150 old Mk12 W62 warheads surplussed from the 50 Minuteman III missiles to be pulled from Malmstroms AFB. No mystery here. These warheads, like all the rest of the W62s, are headed to Texas for "recycling". Far more interesting is the transfer of these missiles to Vandenberg for conventional missions. How would Russia react if an ICBM was launched from California in the Global War on Terror? Probably like Washington would if a SS-18 suddenly lifted off. New world situations; new rules needed.
Frank Shuler
USA
Actually, Frank, I've confirmed that STRATCOM now plans to keep some portion of the MM III force in a MIRV configuration.
So much for your theory.
Jeffrey, I never said that the residual Minuteman ICBM force wouldn't be MIRVed. I do suspect however that the single W62-warhead MMIII fleet at Warren Air Force Base, 150 units, will be converted to the single warhead MK-21/W87 configuration. After the 50 MIRVed W-62 missiles at Malmstrorn are pulled, and their Minuteman missiles made available for conventional missions, the issue will be the remaining 300 MMIIIs at Malmstrorn and Minot. What will be the warhead mix on this inventory? How many W-78 warheads will the United States keep in its “operational inventory” for these missiles? It is speculated that all these missiles will remain MIRV-capable and loaded only as to individual mission requirements. As long as Russia has operational SS-18s in the ground, the US Air Force will have multiple-warhead Minuteman IIIs, with W-78 warheads, in the targeting mix.
No theory; just opinion.
Frank Shuler
USA