It turned out there was a reason the Rocket Forces did not tell us how many new Topol-M missiles that regiment that was accepted for service in December 2005 has. In his interview today, General Nikolai Solovtsov, the commander of the Strategic Rocket Forces, revealed that the regiment has just two missiles (not four as I thought). So, the total number of (silo-based) Topol-Ms is 42, not 44.
Another interesting moment in this interview is the plan to keep six regiments in the Tatishchevo division. Since this is the division that is being equipped with silo-based Topol-Ms, this is likely to mean that the plan is to stop silo-based Topol-M deployment at 60 missiles.
Unlike the UR-100NUTTH/SS-19 missiles in Tatishchevo, the ones in Kozelsk will probably be kept in service until 2010-2013 - the service life of the missile will be extended to 30 years.
And, finally, older R-36MUTTH/SS-18 continue to be decommissioned - according to Solovtsov, only 80 SS-18 missiles are left on active service. Most likely, the division in Dombarovsky now has 40 missiles now, down from the 45 reported in the July 2005 START memorandum.
The book
Comments
Is your conclusion based on "six regiments are to be maintained in the Tatishchevo division" and each SRF regiment has 10 missiles? or Are there only 60 SS-19 silos at Tatishchevo to convert to Topol-Ms?
Frank Shuler
USA
The division at Tatishchevo used to have 120 silos (110 SS-19s and 10 SS-24s). Apparently, the Rocket Forces plan to keep only half of the silos.
There is an interesting issue here. There are only 110 silos at Tatishchevo, yet you list 69 SS-19s and 42 SS-27s as deployed at the base (44 before the interview). It seems to me that the sum can be no greater than 110, so there are a maximum of 68 SS-19s at the base.
No, there are 120 silos there. Ten silos were used for SS-24s when these were being deployed. These ten were among the first silos to be used for Topol-Ms.
As far as I understand, these are all silos of the same type and they don't really require any modification to have a different missile put there.
Thank you for clarifying that. I remembered reading somewhere that the 10 SS-24 silos had been destroyed, but have now checked and realised that they are indeed still operational.
Do we expect silo based Topol-Ms to be installed at other SRF locations besides Tatishchevo? Or, will the SRF now exclusively move to TEL mobile Topol-Ms after installing the before mentioned 60 units?
Frank Shuler
USA
As far as I understand, this is the plan - to stop silo-based Topol-M deployment after 60 missiles. All the rest will be mobile.
Were not some 46 SS-24 fixed silos destroyed in Ukraine due to START and post-Soviet nuclear agreements between Russia and the Ukraine?
Frank Shuler
USA
Yes, Ukraine has agreed to destroy all its silos (or, rather, it agreed not to have missiles, which in the terms of START Treaty means it had to destroy all silos).