I should stop commenting on this "hypersonic, changing-course-in-mid-flight, all-kind-of-missile-defense-penetrating, no-one-else-has-it" missile that President Putin and his military keep telling us about. How many times can they sell this thing? Apparently, as long as the public buys it.
It's been two years since this whatever was first tested with much secrecy and fanfare. Information has been quite slow to come, but we do have something - this seems to be an old project of the NPO Mashinostoyeniya, which was tested on top of a UR-100NUTTH/SS-19 missile. It may have been tested with other missiles, Topol or Topol-M, but I would seriously doubt it - Yuri Solomonov, the chief designer of these two was quite scornful about this "hypersonic warhead".
What is it? I'm not really a rocket scientist, but if I would have to guess, I would probably say that this might be some kind of a hypersonic cruise missile. To make maneuvers it would have to be in atmosphere, so either the ballistic missile that launches it flies along a quite depressed trajectory or it re-enters earlier than a regular warhead and makes maneuvers during the re-entry part of the flight. Changing trajectory during the ballistic phase of the flight outside of the atmosphere would also be possible, but it would take a lot of fuel.
Which brings us to the real questions - would a "hypersonic maneuverable" system like this be technically possible? I guess, yes. Would it be practical? Not at all. All these maneuvers would impose significant cost in terms of weight. If I remember correctly, the Soviet Union experimented with maneuverable warheads for its ICBMs to improve their accuracy, but then abandoned the idea precisely for that reason - it's just not worth it. I'm sure it's the same with the current system - maneuverability (or whatever it is) might be a nice thing to have, but it would hardly justify the cost.
So, what is this "miracle weapon" good for? Impressing journalists and pundits would probably be it. Which, when you think of it, is all this weapon has to do.
The book
Comments
This report says that he has explained the working principle to French President
http://www.mosnews.com/news/2006/01/31/putinmissiles.shtml
I some times fail to understand why there is general skepticism when Russia says that she has developed something which others dont have , Is this the first time that Russian has stolen such a lead .
I am sure if US would have stated such a thing there would have been a general acceptance.
Even I am no rocket scientist , It it more likely that its a Scramjet Air Vehical which can carry few N-warhead , Rather than a hypersonic manouvering warhead.
Probably they would carry such a Scram Jet Vehical on top of their missile , and these ScramJet vehical can manouvere in space or during rentry , Thus making the job of Interceptor very difficult and unpredictable.
Check this India own scramjet test vehical carried on a Satellite launch Vechical http://img81.imageshack.us/img81/6748/hstdv0gw.jpg
May be its a similar configuration carried by Topol-M
No, this thing would have been essentially useless no matter who developed it. An ordinary ICBM could do everything that is necessary if one would want to deliver a warhead over intercontinental ranges.
I think that the issue may be quite simple. The mention of "hypersonic" is only a marketing ploy, since all warheads are hypersonic. However, the real capality of these warheads likely lies in a small rocket engine which can be fired in bursts and pop-out fins which alter its trajectory. These features lead to variations in the warheads' speed and trajectory to an extent that it is capable of defeating an interception attempt using any anti-ballistic missile. At the moment, this is sufficient to neutralise the USA's NMD system. On the other hand, it is possible that this entire story is a bluff and there are no plans for series productio of these warheads.
The US military had confirmed that tracked a “non ballistic” trajectory with changes in altitude on the last test of this device. This seems far enough to defeat hit-to-kill interceptors.
This was the report near two monts ago
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Russia recently conducted a flight test of a new warhead that can change course in midflight, which U.S. and Russian officials are calling part of Moscow's efforts to defeat U.S. missile defenses.
The warhead was tested Nov. 1 and tracked by U.S. intelligence technical monitors, including satellites, the officials said.
An analysis of the flight test by U.S. intelligence agencies revealed that it was a further test of a maneuverable warhead that Moscow has been developing for several years in response to U.S. missile defenses.
The warhead was flight tested on a Russian Topol-M missile, designated by the Pentagon the SS-27, that flew from the Kapustin Yar launch complex in southern Russia near Volgograd.
The missile booster fired for a shorter-than-usual duration in placing the dummy warhead and re-entry vehicle into space. The warhead then dropped down to a lower trajectory and was able to maneuver.
Kremlin officials were quoted in Russian press reports as saying the new warhead was designed to thwart the new U.S. missile-defense system of interceptors deployed in Alaska and California.
U.S. officials confirmed some characteristics of the new missile warhead based on an analysis of the Nov. 1 flight test, which was first reported earlier this month by several Russian news organizations.
Unlike current ballistic warheads that do not alter their flight paths sharply once they reach space, the new warhead can change course and range while traveling at speeds estimated at about 3 miles per second, the officials said.
Maneuvering warheads represents a difficult physics challenge because changing course at such high speeds normally would cause a warhead to disintegrate.
Maneuverability would let a warhead thwart missile defenses, because such countermeasures rely on sensors to project a warhead's flight path and impact point so that an interceptor missile can be guided to the right spot to knock out a warhead.
Rick Lehner, a spokesman for the Pentagon's Missile Defense Agency (MDA), declined to comment on U.S. intelligence assessments of the latest Russian warhead test because data is classified.
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To begin with, Bill Gertz (it's a quote from his story in The Washington Times) is not a credible source. But, again, the point is not whether something like this would be technically possible. It may well be. The point is that it would be useless at best.
So this draw and noisy claims are just a sci-fi story or a misinformation plot drawed by the Russian military?
http://cns.miis.edu/pubs/week/images/051109b.jpg
No, I think there is some there there, but a lot of claims are quite exaggerated, to put it mildly.
One general conclusion is that such a maneuverable missile warhead wouldn't be a "first strike" weapon. The more maneuverable the warhead; the less accurate on target. Its role would serve as a deterrent. Strike Russia and we will respond by launching a missile your defenses can't stop. Sounds like food for the masses.
However, anyone that thinks Russia can't build a "world-class" weapon system is sadly delusional. Russia does however continue to struggle rebuilding its military industrial complex to supports such developments. Remember, the Topol-M is the first ICBM ever built in Russia. I suspect this missile, and its warheads; will continue to develop in capabilities.
Frank Shuler
USA
Russian Nukes Redux
"But instead of falling to earth on a predictable trajectory, it then detaches and maneuvers as it re-enters the atmosphere, like a cruise missile. This maneuverability, analysts say, would confound U.S. missile defenses, which work by plotting an incoming warhead's trajectory and intercepting it as it homes in on a target. Tests last year showed that for the first time, prototype targetable warheads can shift trajectory at Mach 8, making them almost impossible to shoot down."
[The missile that does not care]
MOSCOW. (RIA Novosti political commentator Andrei Kislyakov.) - This year shows little prospect for a much needed Russian-U.S. missile defense treaty. [...]
I would really appreciate it if we could refrain from posting stories from other sites as comments.
Point Well Taken , But will it be fine if we just post a link to the story
It seems the Manouvering Vehical has been tested form a SS-19 , perhaps a more refined version of what has been tested before.
The reference to scramjet makes me think that this is the first operational scramjet platform which has been tested repetedly , Although experimental testing has been done by Australia and US.
Thanks
Austin
Yes, it does seem that this warhead was tested with SS-19. This is exactly what I wrote two years ago:
On February 19th the First Deputy Chief of Staff announced that during the exercise Russia tested a warhead of a new type. No further details were disclosed, but it appears that it was a maneuverable warhead tested during the UR-100NUTTH launch.
I'm not sure what is the 2001 test the RIA article mentions, but my guess is that it was something quite different.
The concept of a Manouvering Warhead or a Manouvering Reentry Vehical (RV) is not someting new , Even India's Agni Missile uses a Manouvering RV , and I believe even western ICBM have Post Boost Vehical with a Manouvering Reentry.
But whats interesting is the use of Scramjet for the purpose , If a scramjet vehical or a Scramjet Powered Aerodynamic Warhead is developed then it would be very much possible that the Warhed can bounce between Upper Atmosphere and OuterSpace can have a Hypersonic Powered Flight .
From what I can make out of the news is that between Topol-M and SS-18 the Russians are testing range of *New Concepts* in terms of Manouvering Warhead and Scramject Reentry Vehical and we could see different systems for different ICBM , as in the Lighter Topol-M may carry a different manouvering warhead compared to the heavier and much larger SS-18 which could carry some other type.
As I said, this thing is very good at impressing journalists - Owen Matthews at Newsweek and Anne Fitzpatrick at FAS.
Well It is an Irony that jurnos tend to equate the Manouverable Warhead or what ever it is with US ABM system or to be more forthright as a missile which can defeat the ABM system.
Well nothing can be further from the Truth that the new system is just an excercise to replace the expired or soon to be expired older ICBM in Russias arsenal .
Russia can easily overwhelm and defeat the US ABM system even with the present ICBM strength , Its MIRV warhead and Decoys are sufficient to defeat the US ABM system in what ever form it exists.
Even scientist in US have pointed out how easy it is to defeat the current ABM system that the US is developing or planning to develop.
The ABM system which the US is developing is to defeat the Missile from the so called Rogue Nation like North Korea , Iran etc and not the threat to Russia's Means to deliver it over continental US even in its present form.
They should be stoped.