Pavel

So I guess we are to infer that the early Topol-M (SS-27s) have only five years of remaining “operational life” before they too will need an update to their service life? I am also assuming such an update program only involves robust testing and replacement of worn missile components and the like. If my calculations are correct, aren’t all the SS-25, SS-19, and SS-18s scheduled to be withdrawn from service in the 2018-20 time-frame?

Frank Shuler
USA

> So I guess we are to infer that the early Topol-M (SS-27s) have only five years of remaining 'operational life' before they too will need an update to their service life?

- SS-27 Topol-M, relatively to it's predecessor SS-25 Topol, has a 1,5 times prolonged 'warranty period' (гарантийный срок эксплуатации). Pavel, please confirm that the initial warranty period of SS-25 was 10 years.

If so, 'warranty period' for Topol-M will be 15 years, and service life expected have all the chances to be near amazing 30 years (20 years for SS-25 Topol x 1.5).

- To the older discussion about how RS-24 is 'relative' to Topol-M:

This picture shows quite clearly that the second stage of RS-24 was increased by 10 - 11 % in length, comparatively to SS-27 Topol-M:

http://img76.imageshack.us/my.php?image=tmrsvw7.png

- At above picture, we can see the following:

(a) Stage 2 was SURELY changed, - it's length increased by 10 - 11 %.
(b) Interstage 1-2 was SURELY changed, - it's shortened to accomodate the missile on the mobile TEL.
(c) Bus LOOKS LIKE changed, - it's length MAY BE increased by 15 - 18 %.
(d) Stage 1 LOOKS LIKE remained intact.

This is why 'RS-24 TEL' was put in a category of its own: Pavel, - as I told to you earlier, Russia don't need to lie... And, as Russia said that RS-24 is a missile different from Topol-M, - so let it be... ;-)

Pavel, we need your comment and analysis here: if, really, 1st stage of RS-24 will be EXACTLY the same as one of Topol-M (or will be changed slightly in lenght, - inside the 10 % limit) and 2nd stage's length will be increased by 10 - 11 %, - how it correlate with the present bilateral treaty (i.e. START)?

Please provide here some citations from START.

Russian: The fact that the initial "warranty period" of Topol-M is 15 years and not 10 years as with other missiles doesn't mean much. It depends on the confidence level and anyway (almost) no missile was withdrawn after ten years.

I'm not sure your picture shows what you want it to show. Anyway, a change in the length of the second stage won't help with START treaty (see my post on RS-24 and START).

On a different issue - if I remember correctly, some time ago you posted a link to a story that had some data on Topol/Topol-M readiness. I think it was on ARMS-TASS, but I cannot find it there. I would appreciate it if you could send me a copy if you have it.

> The fact that the initial "warranty period" of Topol-M is 15 years and not 10 years as with other missiles doesn't mean much.

- Anyway, it's 'at least' a good sign. And good achievement.

> ...a change in the length of the second stage won't help with START treaty...

- Thus, if changes of 2nd stage does not match the criteria, other factors should be considered:

(a) launch weight, by ten percent or more;

(b) length of either the assembled missile without front section, or length of the first stage, by ten percent or more;

(c) diameter of the first stage, by five percent or more;

(d) throw-weight, by an increase of 21 percent or more, in conjunction with a change in the length of the first stage by five percent or more.

- (d) looks preferable as increase of throwweight should really take place, and length of the first stage still cannot be estimated with enough accuracy.

> Some time ago you posted a link to a story that had some data on Topol / Topol-M readiness...

- (???) Can't remember such, really... Что там конкретно было написано?

It had some information about readiness and patrol rates. Or maybe I've seen it somewhere else.

> It had some information about readiness and patrol rates.

05.05.08 - РВСН планируют в этом году запустить девять межконтинентальных ракет - Gzt.Ru

http://news.mail.ru/politics/1742986/print/

[...]

Thank you. This is exactly what I had in mind.

> 05.05.08 - РВСН планируют в этом году запустить девять межконтинентальных ракет - Gzt.Ru

- Pavel, it seems we've missed the important cue from the Solovtsov's interview... Nikolay Solovtsov said that '9 launches of ICBMs planned for summer training period', - so could we suppose that all (or most part) of these launches would be conducted in one large exercises, simulating the 'real', i.e. massive military implementation of Russian strategic triad?

In other words, - can we expect a large-scale exercises of RVSN, as well as strategic fleet and aviation, similar to the large-scale excersises of June 1982, known on the West under the joke name 'seven-hour nuclear war'?

> ... Rocket Forces are completing an upgrade of the command and control system.

- I can see here the additional argument for the large-scale exercises I've tried to consider in my recent post.

So the arguments for such an exercises are:

(a) There was NO launches of ICBMs and SLBMs during the last half a year (since the end of December, 2007 till the end of June, 2008)... 6 months of still looks like a 'still before the storm'...

(b) According to the Nikolay Solovtsov's statement of May 5, 2008 - '9 launches of ICBMs planned for summer training period'; such a period will be finished already in October 31, according to Russian military tradition. And now is June 24, so concentration of 9 launches in four month looks rather unusual; it could be logical to concentrate all or most of 9 launches in one large-scale exercise, a 'big military game'.

(c) Large-scale exercises with launch of 9 ICBMs in the short period of time, could surely be used as a good test for the new 'Signal-X' command and control system.

Just my 'best guess'.

- And maybe a 'final touche' to the above idea about possibility of large-scale exercises of RVSN during the next few months of this year:

"Знаковым событием в жизни РВСН станет конкурс по полевой выучке офицеров, заключительный этап которого будет проведен с 21 по 26 июля 2008 года на учебно-материальной базе Военной академии РВСН имени Петра Великого, Серпуховского ВИ РВ и Козельского соединения":

http://www.mil.ru/848/1045/1275/rvsn/19220/index.shtml?id=44085

It could be logical to conduct a final stage of the 'officer's contest' mentioned above, during the exercises with real missile launches.

- So, - should we expect an exercises in the period since July 21 to July 26, 2008?

Time will tell...