In a number of stories that accompanied the test launch of a Topol missile today, various Rocket Forces representatives told journalists about the plans for this year.
The Rocket Forces expect to add six missiles to the deployed force. These are, of course, Topol-M missiles - the only question is what combination of silo-based and road-mobile missiles we will see in December. The number six suggests that these are two road-mobile regiments, so no silo-based Topol-Ms would be deployed this year despite the confirmed commitment to continue deployment of the sixth regiment in Tatishchevo (which in this case will not begin until 2010).
The road-based Topol-Ms, which will be MIRVed and called RS-24 from now on, will be deployed in Teykovo, as expected. According to the Rocket Forces, once the deployment of RS-24/MIRVed Topol-M begins this year, all new road-mobile missiles will be MIRVed (however, three of the six new missiles may still be single-warhead Topol-Ms - according to Solovtsov, deployment of these missiles will stop at two regiments - 18 missiles, i.e. three more than the current 15). It is not clear if new silo-based Topol-Ms will be MIRVed as well. Earlier reports suggest that they might, but my guess is that the sixth regiment in Tatishchevo will have single-warhead missiles.
The R-36MUTTH version of the SS-18 missile (also known as RS-20B) will be completely withdrawn from service, while the R-36M2 (RS-20V) will stay until about 2019. Withdrawal of R-36UTTH was planned some time ago - it was announced back in 2005 (the missile is about 30 years now and it shows). As for R-36M2, it looks like it got another extension of its service life - the last officially released number was 20 years. Keeping the missile in service until 2019 would require extending it to just under 30 years, which is probably doable.
As for the number of R-36M2 missiles, there is a bit of uncertainty here - some data suggest that the Soviet Union deployed 82 missiles of this type by the time it broke up - 30 in Dombarovsky, 28 in Uzhur, and 24 in Derzhavinsk (in Kazakhstan). The missiles from Derzhavinsk were brought to Russia, but it is not clear if they were redeployed (most likely not). So far everything is consistent with the Rocket Forces leaving 30 R-36M2 missiles in Dombarovsky and 28 - in Uzhur. Earlier reports indicate that both these divisions will remain operational after 2016.
The Rocket Forces are planning to conduct 14 launches of ballistic missiles this year - five of them will be space launches that would use missiles removed from service. These are four planned Dnepr launches (three from Baykonur and one from Dombarovsky) and one Start-1 launch from Vostochny.
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In 2008 the Russian Strategic Missile Forces (RVSN) planned to deploy 11 SS-27 ICBM complexes, 2 silo-based SS-27M1/RS-12M2 and 9 ground-mobile SS-27M2/RS-12M1 launchers. By the end of the year 11 new launchers with 9 missiles are deployed, 2 stationary launchers with 2 missiles at the Tatishchevo ICBM base and 9 mobile launchers with 7 missiles at two missile operating bases (MOB) in the Teykovo ICBM base. The remaining 2 mobile SS-27 missiles became operational on 10 March 2009 with the commissioning of the second missile battalion of the second mobile SS-27 missile regiment inside the missile operating base Teykovo-4.
With the complete stationing of the fifth missile regiment with 50 silo-based SS-27M1 launchers of the 60th missile division in Tatishchevo it assumes that the RVSN has finished the deployment of the fixed-side "Topol-M" ICBMs for the next time. Last year it was referred to continue with the deployment of silo-based SS-27 ICBMs in 2009, but in 2008 Russia produced not only any missile of the silo variant and in 2009 only it is planned to produce and deploy the existing and the new mobile versions. According to Colonel-General Nikolai Solovtsov, supreme commander of the RVSN, it was intended in 2008 to begin with the deployment of the sixth missile regiment of the 60th missile division in Tatishchevo in 2009. But only the fifth missile regiment in this ICBM base was completed with the fitting of two new ICBMs. Now it is published the intention to deploy in 2009 only the ground-mobile SS-27M2/RS-12M1 ICBMs and to begin with the introduction of its new mobile variant SS-27M3/RS-24 in the Teykovo ICBM base. The upgraded MIRVed version RS-24 "Yars" currently exists as a "prototype ICBM" of a "new type" according to the declaration under the provisions of the START I Treaty. As published in the past, the first deployment of the RS-24 is scheduled shortly after the expiration of the START I Treaty on 6 December 2009.
Commander-in-Chief Nikolai Solovtsov told Russian journalists in November 2008 that the main regiment (9 ICBMs) and one battalion (3 ICBMs) will be put on combat duty with the multiple-warhead RS-24 in the Teykovo missile base in December 2009. Concrete it means that the strategic missile troops planned to deploy 12 RS-24 ICBMs until the end of 2009 - 3 launchers in the third missile battalion of the second SS-27 missile regiment in the missile operating base Teykovo-4 together with 6 SS-27M2/RS-12M1 as well as 9 launchers with 3 missile battalions in the first RS-24 main missile regiment in Teykovo-1. The missile operating base Teykovo-4 in such a case accommodate a mixed composition of two missile battalions with 6 SS-27M2 and one missile battalion with 3 RS-24. This is not unlikely because in former years the Tatishchevo ICBM base for example has deployed new silo-based SS-27 ICBMs together with older SS-19 missile silos. The RS-24 in addition is basically a variant or version of the same SS-27M2 missile and launcher system with the same command structure. According to Russian sources the Defense Ministry would buy in 2009 "for the first time more than 10 intercontinental ballistic missile complexes "Topol-M" and RS-24." The missile troops have purchased 2 SS-27M2 ICBMs until March 2009. Together with 12 new RS-24 ICBMs this are 14 ("more than 10") new procured ICBMs.
The missile regiment Teykovo-3 has 3 missile battalions with 9 SS-27M2/RS-12M1 and the missile regiment Teykovo-2 has 3 missile battalions with 9 SS-25/RS-12M. This SS-25 missile complexes are slated for dismantlement and will be replaced with RS-24 complexes probably in 2010.
54th Guards Missile Division Teykovo -
1 January 2009:
MOB...............Launchers...ICBMs...ICBM type
Teykovo-1.....0.................0...........-
Teykovo-2.....9.................9...........SS-25
Teykovo-3.....9.................9...........SS-27M2
Teykovo-4.....6.................4*.........SS-27M2
*Additionally 2 ICBMs in March 2009.
On 10 April 2009 Commander-in-Chief Nikolai Solovtsov said: "Until the end of 2009 it is planned to finish the euipping of the second missile regiment of the missile division with the ground-mobile missile complexes "Topol-M". All together it will be included in the combat composition of the RVSN two missile regiments in the Teykovo unit. Until today a further access of the ground-mobile missile complexes "Topol-M" in the armament of the RVSN is not planned" and furthermore "For the realization of the planning of the combat organizations of the RVSN in 2009 six launchers will enter the combat duty." According to this statements, in December 2009 the RVSN will deploy 3 launchers of the SS-27M2 with the third missile battalion in the missile operating base Teykovo-4 and 3 launchers of the RS-24 with the first missile battalion probably in Teykovo-1 (or in Teykovo-2 which has deployed SS-25 launchers at the beginning of 2009).
As published in the START I Treaty Memoranda of Understanding, in 2008 Russia has produced or assembled 7 SS-27 only in its variant for road-mobile launcher as well as 1 RS-24 test missile. The silo-based variant of the SS-27 was not produced in 2008, so it would seem to suggest that the further deployment of the silo launchers with an additional missile regiment in Tatishchevo is not planned for the next time. Later it is possible to fill silo launchers of the Tatishchevo ICBM base with SS-27M1 or RS-24 ICBMs. In 2006, 2007, and 2008 Russia has produced 8 SS-27 ICBMs in its three variants yearly.
Votkinsk Machine Building Plant ICBM productions:
2006......8......(5 SS-27M1, 3 SS-27M2)
2007......8......(3 SS-27M1, 3 SS-27M2, 2 RS-24)
2008......8......(0 SS-27M1, 7 SS-27M2, 1 RS-24)
2009......8......(0 SS-27M1, 5 SS-27M2, 3 RS-24)
The production rates indicate, that the Votkinsk Machine Building Plant has not extended its production capacity. With the 2 SS-27M2s, produced and deployed at the beginning of 2009, the facility will produce 3 SS-27M2 and 3 RS-24 ICBMs until December 2009 additionally this year. Furthermore it is questionable wheter the missile production plant in Votkinsk can extend its ICBM production capacity. If the development and the test phase of the new SS-NX-30/RSM-56 SLBM until 2010 maybe is finished successfully, then the plant must produce a higher number of ballistic missiles together with the "Iskander" SRBMs.