In an interesting interview to Interfax Yuri Solomonov mentioned that the state defense order for 2011-2013 calls for a significant increase of the ballistic missile production rate after the first year. The number of missiles produced in 2012-2013 is expected to be "several times higher" than in 2011, which is expected to stay at the current level. The current level is about eight missiles a year - earlier Solomonov mentioned six to ten, it stayed about eight Topol-M missiles on average in the last few years.
These numbers apparently include Bulava SLBMs that would be required to equip the new Project 955 submarines - Aleksandr Nevskiy and Vladimir Monomakh, which would probably be ready around that time. The first submarine of this class, Yuri Dolgorukiy, apparently has enough missiles produced for it already - Solomonov suggested that serial production of Bulava has been going for four years. Given that the each submarine requires 16 missiles, Votkinsk would have to produce at least 16 in 2012 and again in 2013, which is already about twice the current production rate. To this we should add seven or so ICBMs (the 2011 plan in to deploy three RS-24 and four silo-based Topol-Ms), which means that the the production rate will roughly triple.
Solomonov also mentioned that the production of silo-based Topol-Ms will be winding down in 2011 and 2012 (so, it looks like the four silo-based Topol-Ms in 2012 will be the last ones). He said that a silo-based RS-24 is possible, but only after a few years. My understanding is that there are no immediate plans to deploy RS-24 in silos.
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They will also need to make a complement of Sineva missiles for Karelia and Novomoskovsk, so that's another 32 missiles made by Krasmash.
Karelia returned to service (presumably with Sineva) in January 2010. As for Novomoskovsk, I wouldn't be surprised if the missiles have been produced already.
Of course, we cannot say for sure how realistic are Solomonov's predictions, but I would like to know some opinion on that. What do You think, Pavel? Could it be done? What conditions must be met to achieve this goal? What are the other options or scenarios?
Yours
m
Karelia returned to service, but it hasn't made any launches, so there is no confirmation that it has a full load. After all, Bryansk and Tula were also sailing without full load for some time after their overhaul. Anyway, it is hard to judge.
The interesting statement of MITT chief designer Yuri Solomonov in his Interfax interview is the announcement to deploy silo-based RS-24 ICBMs in the next years. This is a suitable decision because the production and maintenance of ground-mobile missile complexes are very costly and labor-intensive. On the other hand the RVSN can use existing hardened silo-launchers and must produce only new ICBMs and launch canisters. In the eighties this was one reason for the decision of the United States to deploy the MX ICBM only in existing "Minuteman" silos.
Excerpt from Yuri Solomonov´s interview:
- Question on a land topic. Will the Votkinsk plant now make only the RS-24 or still the silo-based "Topol-M"?
- Yes, in 2011 and 2012, the programs of manufacturing silo land-based "Topol-M" missiles will come to the end and it will be continued to manufacture the "Yars" missiles.
- "Yars" will be mobile-based only or also silo-based?
- No, there will also be silo-based "Yars", but it will be much later, in some years. It will basically be about the new ground launching equipment. And missiles as well as also "Topol-M" for two basing types will be completely standardized.
Relating to the last news in connection with a significant increase of the ballistic missile production it is likely that the process of modernization and expansion of the missile production capacities in Votkinsk will continue over the next two years. This process will include the mobile and planned silo-based RS-24 ICBMs, "Bulava" SLBMs, "Iskander" SRBMs, and theoretically, the announced "new land-based ICBM by 2013" (silo-based RS-24 or a new RS-26?).
Votkinsk Machine Building Plant ICBM productions:
Year...Produced...........SS-27Mod1 (silo).......SS-27Mod1 (mobile).....SS-27Mod2 (mobile)
.........total.....yearly....RS-12M2*"Topol-M"...RS-12M1*"Topol-M"......RS-24"Yars"
2004...55..........6..................4..............................2(test).........................0
2005...57..........2..................2..............................0.................................0
2006...65..........8..................5..............................3.................................0
2007...73..........8..................3..............................3.................................2(test)
2008...81..........8..................0..............................7.................................1(test)
2009...89..........8..................0..............................5.................................3
2010...97..........8..................2**..........................0..................................6**
* Both road-mobile and silo-based "Topol-M" ICBMs are designated under the New START Treaty as RS-12M2.
** The composition of this numbers is estimated and may vary slightly (including possible mobile and silo-based RS-24 test ICBMs.)
Former test missiles are included in the total numbers of produced ICBMs.
Sources: START I Treaty Memoranda of Understanding
Currently the production rate or serial production of SS-NX-32 / RSM-56 "Bulava" SLBMs is not important. Russia in 2011-2012 must complete the "Bulava" test launch program successfully.
Meanwhile, the new Nuclear Notebook "Russian nuclear forces, 2011" was published in the "Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists."