Quite a few people have noticed the relatively high level of activity of the Russian strategic forces - in the past few days Russia tested a Bulava SLBM from Yury Dolgorukiy submarine, a Topol-M missile from Plesetsk, and a Sineva missile from the Tula submarine. Its strategic bombers have also been very active recently. And this is probably not the end of it yet - the word is that Russia will launch an SS-18 ICBM (most likely R-36M2) from Dombarovskiy/Yasnyy in the coming days.
Given that all this is happening against the backdrop of the continuing crisis around Ukraine, it is perfectly legitimate to ask if all these launches and bomber patrols are supposed to send a message of some sort. My best guess is that they are not - what we see is the regular burst of activity that now happens every fall. In October 2013 Russia staged a major exercise of strategic forces, with two ICBM and two SLBM launches, a test of an ABM interceptor, cruise missile launches, and Tu-160 bombers visiting South America. In October 2012 we saw launches of an ABM interceptor, R-29R SLBM, Topol ICBM, cruise missiles from strategic bombers, and a new ICBM (R-26 Rubezh).
So, the launches of the fall of 2014 don't look unusual at all. Of course, the circumstances have changed, so now they may be perceived differently, but that is probably an unintended effect of the regular activity.
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"And this is probably not the end of it yet - the word is that Russia will launch an SS-18 ICBM (most likely R-36M2) from Dombarovskiy/Yasnyy in the coming days"
Maybe it is tomorrow's Dnepr launch?
Yes, that should be it. I forgot to check the launch schedule (for some reason I am not getting NK notices from that tread).
This happens every time that the USA completes its own Global Thunder exercises. A few of us that monitor Global Thunder on HF predicted that there would be activity the day after it finished and sure enough 4 Bears flew around the UK, down across the Atlantic to Portuguese airspace, before returning
The next day they did the same
This was then followed by the launches mentioned here
It's the usual "look what we can do" procedures that take place each year
http://www.stratcom.mil/news/2014/522/US_Strategic_Command_to_conduct_command_control_exercise/
I don't think these are necessarily linked - this is probably just a coincidence. October seems like a reasonable time to held exercises.
The Dnepr was launched today:
http://itar-tass.com/kosmos/1554339
[I don't think these are necessarily linked - this is probably just a coincidence. October seems like a reasonable time to held exercises.
[Pavel Podvig]
Also, the US Government’s new fiscal year begins in October. There is “new monies” for such training. Lot’s of Pentagon training every October. Agree, all this “activity” is a coincidence. Yet, the timing is awkward and only fuels suspicion.
Frank Shuler
USA