Early this week the United States and Russia released the July 2009 START Memorandums of Understanding, which may well be the last START data exchange - the treaty will expire in December 2009. The data show that while Russia continued elimination of old strategic systems and deployment of some new ones, there were no dramatic changes in the Russian strategic forces in the first half of 2009.
As of July 1, 2009, Russia had 608 delivery vehicles that were capable of carrying 2683 nuclear warheads (26 launchers and 142 warheads fewer than in January). These numbers, of course, include launchers and warheads that are not, strictly speaking, "operationally deployed". For example, at least two submarines are in overhaul and some are being dismantled. Coming up with a number of "operationally deployed" warheads that would correspond to the number that the United States has been reporting in the Moscow treaty is not easy - operational status of some Russian delivery systems or the number of warheads they carry is not known. A simple estimate would give 2528 warheads, but this is most likely an overestimate, since it assumes for example that all Tu-95MS16 bombers have 16 ALCMs associated with them, which is unlikely.
Overall, the changes relative to January 2009 are not very significant. Russia continued to withdraw old R-36MUTTH/SS-18 and UR-100NUTTH/SS-19 missiles from service (nine and two respectively). These missiles account for most of the reduction in the number of warheads (102 our of 142).
Two data points in the MOU are worth mentioning. First, Russia reported 49 deployed silo-based Topol-M missiles - in January 2009 the number was 50. I consider it a quirk of the reporting requirement - it is likely that particular date the missile was not in its silo. I expect this number to return to 50 by the end of the year. Second, another Tu-160 bomber has been moved to the test bombers column, reducing the number of bombers that are listed as operationally deployed to 13.
The book
Comments
According to the last START I Treaty Memorandum of Understanding of 1 July 2009 (published on 1 October 2009) the Russian Strategic Missile Forces (RVSN) have 67 SS-27 ICBMs. 49 silo-based SS-27M1/RS-12M2 are deployed in Tatishchevo and 15 road-mobile SS-27M2/RS-12M1 in Teykovo. Furthermore 1 non-deployed SS-27M1 was located at the Votkinsk Machine Building Plant (returned from the Tatishchevo ICBM base) and 2 non-deployed SS-27M1 at the storage facility for ICBMs in Khrizolitovyy.
Inside the ICBM base Teykovo the composition of deployed SS-25 road-mobile launchers was changed. The missile operating base (MOB) Teykovo-1 now has 3 deployed launchers and the 9 SS-25 launchers in Teykovo-2 are removed. This new configuration suggests that the introduction of the first battalion with 3 new SS-27M3/RS-24 ICBM launchers in December 2009 is scheduled maybe for a deployment in Teykovo-2.
54th Guards Missile Division Teykovo -
1 July 2009:
MOB...............Launchers...ICBMs...ICBM type
Teykovo-1......3................3..........SS-25
Teykovo-2......0................0..........-
Teykovo-3......9................9..........SS-27M2
Teykovo-4......6................6..........SS-27M2
In 2009 the Votkinsk Machine Building Plant has produced or assembled 4 SS-27 ICBMs (2 SS-27M1 and 2 SS-27M2) in the first half year. In this relation it is probable that the plant will produce 6 ICBMs additionally for two missile battalions in the second half year (the planned 3 RS-24 and 3 SS-27M2 for Teykovo-4). If this production rate is correct, Russia will produce 10 SS-27 ICBMs in 2009, two more ICBMs instead of 8 missiles in the former years. In this case the missile production in Votkinsk increase its capacity marginally. A slight higher production rate is conseivable because it was announced previously by the SMI "that the RVSN will receive more than 10 complexes with the intercontinental ballistic missiles "Topol-M" and RS-24 in 2009." But it is unlikely that the ICBM production capacity will be extendet dramatically.
Votkinsk Machine Building Plant ICBM productions:
2009......4......(2 SS-27M1, 2 SS-27M2) first half year
2009....10......(2 SS-27M1, 5 SS-27M2, 3 RS-24) end of the year
At the end of 2009 it is certain that the RVSN will deploy 3 RS-24 and 3 SS-27M2 in Teykovo. If this last 3 SS-27M2s are stationed, the deployment of the ground-mobile "Topol-Ms" is finished. The next deployments will be the road-mobile MIRVed variant SS-27M3/RS-24 and the silo-based SS-27M1. In 2010 it is obvious that the deployment of the first RS-24 regiment with 6 additional launchers will be finished and the deployment of the sixth launcher group with the silo-based SS-27M1 in Tatishchevo will continue.
The START I Treaty Memorandum of Understanding of 1 July 2009 was the last detailed data exchange between the START parties under this treaty. A new detailed publication of strategic offensive arms inventories must negotiate in a follow-on agreement to replace the START I Treaty, which expires in December 2009.
(compare the comment under "Rocket Forces tell about plans for 2009")
where one can get full text of mou?
To get MOUs, you'd have to contact State Department's Bureau of Public Affairs. For some reason they don't publish these on their web site.
Here they are:
http://www.state.gov/t/vci/rls/130149.htm
Is there a reason why for the US the number of warheads slightly increased. Comparing the actual data and thos of 1/1/2009 show that MM III number decreased to 500 from 550 but Peacekeeper showed up again with 50 instead of 0. Does someone know why?
The U.S. declared MX silos as Minuteman silos in the January 2009 MOU. As I understand, one can do that - the silos are empty anyway. But it's hard to say why it was done.