U.S. State Department released New START aggregate data from the last information exchange.
According to the release, as of September 1, 2012 Russia had 491 deployed launchers, 884 total launchers, and 1499 operationally deployed warheads. In the previous data exchange, current as of 1 March 2012, these numbers were 494, 881, and 1492 respectively.
The U.S. numbers are 806 deployed launchers, 1034 total launchers, and 1722 operationally deployed warheads (the March 2012 numbers were 812, 1040, and 1737 respectively).
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Comments
In Connection with the last both New START Treaty Aggregate Numbers of Strategic Offensive Arms it was reported in the "Nuclear notebook – Russian nuclear forces, 2012": "In mid-December 2011, Lt. Gen. Sergey Karakayev, commander of Russia´s Strategic Missile Forces (SMF), stated that 86 new SS-27 Mod. 1 (Topol-M) and SS-27 Mod. 2 (RS-24) missiles at that time made up 28 percent of Russia´s deployed ICBM force (Star TV, 2011)",see: http://bos.sagepub.com/content/68/2/87.full.pdf+html. According to this statement this are:
221 RS-20, RS-18, RS-12M = 72 %
86 RS-12M2, RS-24 = 28 %
307 ICBMs = 100 %
The number 86 obviously means 56 silo-based RS-12M2, 18 mobile RS-12M2, and 12 mobile RS-24 ICBMs. But at the end of 2011 the Teykovo ICBM base had 15 mobile RS-24 ICBMs. It is very probable that the official announcements of the deployment numbers and deployment times of the new mobile RS-24 ICBMs by the Russian Ministry of Defense and the RVSN are not correct. In that case all the New START Treaty aggregate numbers are misleading or unclear.
In the aggregate numbers of 1 September 2011 the number of deployed ICBMs, SLBMs, and heavy bombers decreased meanwhile the number of deployed warheads increased. This is a contradiction. It is possible that the mobile "Topol-Ms" in Teykovo are uploaded with MIRVs (and the single RVs used for the deployment of the sixth regiment in Tatishchevo). The New START Treaty prohibits not the uploading of ICBMs and SLBMs. So in fact the Teykovo ICBM base has 36 multiple-warhead SS-27 ICBMs. According to the numbers of produced, deployed, and non-deployed SS-27 Mod 1 / 2 ICBMs it is very likely that the first missile battalion with 3 ground-mobile RS-24 ICBMs was deployed maybe in July or August 2012 in the ICBM base of Novosibirsk. The RVSN later can announce this deployment, so that the ICBMs later are on "combat duty".
If the RS-24 "Yars" respectively the uploaded mobile RS-12M2 "Topol-M" ICBMs are equipped with 6 MIRVs the following New START Treaty Aggregate Numbers are possible:
Type.............Warheads.......5 Feb 2011......1 Sep 2011......1 Mar 2012......1 Sep 2012
RS-20................10.............40....400.........36....360.........35....350.........35....350
RS-18..................6.............55....330.........51....306.........49....294.........42....252
RS-12M................1...........144....144.......144....144.......137....137........132....132
RS-12M2(silo).......1.............52.....52.........52......52.........56......56..........56.....56
RS-12M2(mobile)..1.............18.....18...........3.......3............0......0............0.......0
RS-12M2(mobile)..6...............0......0..........15......90.........15.....90..........18....108
RS-24(mobile)......6...............9.....54..........12......72........15......90.........21....126
Total.................................318....998.......313...1027.......307..1017.......304..1024
RSM-50...............3..............48....144.........48....144.........48....144.........48....144
RSM-54...............4..............80....320.........80....320.........64....256.........64....256
Total.................................128....464.......128....464.......112....400.......112....400
Tu-95MS..............1..............60.......60..........60....60.........60.....60..........60.....60
Tu-160................1..............15......15............15.....15........15......15.........15.....15
Total...................................75......75............75.....75.........75.....75.........75.....75
Total.................................521...1537......516...1566......494...1492......491...1499
In the New START Treaty Aggregate Numbers of 1 March 2012 the number of deployed ICBMs in Teykovo is not 18; it is 15 because 3 mobile "Topol-M" launchers on 27 February 2012 left the ICBM base for the Victory Day Parade on 9 May in Moscow (http://structure.mil.ru/structure/forces/strategic_rocket/news/more.htm?id=10966820@egNews). During a parade the 3 mobile launchers have no missiles, so that the launchers were counted in the aggregate numbers of March as non-deployed.
A ballistic missile submarine (SSBN) with a full SLBM compartment maybe is not operational or on combat duty, but the SLBMs are counted under the New START Treaty as deployed.
Any Missile Maintenance guys on here? Would to hear about any issues one might have had.
Thanks
Larry C. Stinson
91st SMW MinotAFB,ND 1972-1978