At the end of 2007, Russia was estimated to have 702 strategic launchers that could carry up to 3155 nuclear warheads. This is about 40 launchers and 130 warheads fewer than Russia had in the beginning of the year. The reductions are the result of the normal process of removing old systems from service and replacing them with new ones.
The key development in the Strategic Rocket Forces was the continuing replacement of Topol/SS-25 missiles by their SS-27/Topol-M successors. Three mobile Topol-M missiles were deployed in Teykovo and four silo-based were to be deployed in Tatishchevo. In addition to that, Russia began liquidating the the UR-100NUTTH/SS-19 division in Kozelsk - the first regiment of ten missiles was removed from service in 2007. Overall, the number of deployed missiles was reduced from 489 to 452 and the number of warheads attributed to them - from 1788 to 1677.
An important development of 2007 was the series of two flight tests of a MIRVed version of Topol-M. The missile, designated RS-24, will probably be deployed some time after 2009.
In 2007 the Russian Navy got a bit closer to receiving the long-awaited Yuri Dolgorukiy submarine of the Project 955 class - the submarine was reported to leave the dry dock. But the missile that this submarine will eventually carry appeared to encounter some problems in flight tests. It is unlikely that Yuri Dolgorukiy will begin service earlier than 2009-2010.
The number of sea-launched ballistic missiles that are counted as operational and the number of warheads associated with them remained virtually unchanged since last year - 172 SLBMs with 606 warheads.
Russia's strategic bombers made quite a few headlines this year, following the decision to resume their regular patrol flights, announced in August 2007. Since then the bombers have indeed been on patrol almost continuously. It should be kept in mind, however, that the bombers do not carry nuclear weapons during these missions.
There were no changes in the number of bombers - 15 Tu-160 and 64 Tu-95MS. However, Russia reports only 14 Tu-160 bombers in its START declaration and the data on the current status of the Russian force take this into account. The 78 START-accountable bombers can carry up to 872 long-range cruise missiles.
In 2007 Russia took some steps to maintain its space-based early-warning system. It now has two satellites on highly-elliptical orbits and one geostationary satellite. The early-warning radar network lost the radars in Ukraine - Russia moved to discontinue its cooperation agreement with Ukraine. The new radar in Armavir, which is supposed to close the gap, will probably begin operations in 2008.
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Comments
Hello Pavel!
I have a short remark to the data of Teykovo.
You say that SS-25 propably were reduced to 24 according to the fact that they got SS-27 (now 3+3).
Are you quite sure about it?
On google earth (GE) we can see 4 sites at Teykovo Area.
1./ 56°42'17.62"N 40°26'29.66"E
2./ 56°48'32.50"N 40°10'24.46"E
3./ 56°55'2.25"N 40°18'31.16"E
These three sites seem to be the SS-25 sites. Although one of them (no.2) is still on Low Res they all fit into the "nine missile garage pattern" and it seems that there are no big changes at these sites.
But there is a fourth site 56°55'59.61"N 40°32'39.26"E - it seems that this site is getting extended and we can see some construction work.
Six missile grarages seem to be ready (that would fit for the recent number of SS-27) and three more are under construction.
My assumption is that currently there is no need to reduce the number of SS-25 - in order to make room for SS-27 - because the base is getting extended and in so far SS-27 are getting concentrated in a new site at the base.
This will continue until there are nine of them. Only then they have to decide again to reduce SS-25 from the three sites or to create a fith site (which I don't think).
In so far it could be that we have still 27 SS-25 and 6 SS-27 right now at Teykovo.
But of course this is only an assumption.
BTW: There is a TEL visible currently on GE just south of the SS-27 site ( 56°53'44.31"N 40°34'44.97"E) - hard to distinguish whether it is SS-27 or SS-25.
Cheers from Bernd
July 2007 START data list 27 Topol and 3 Topol-M missiles. In January 2007 there were 30 Topols and no Topol-Ms. So, I assumed that this year Topol-Ms replaced Topols, rather than added to them. But now that I look at the data I realize that I may be wrong. It is indeed possible that it is 27-6, not 24-6.
Pavel: What are you basing the 2009-2010 entry date for the 955 on? Is it the missile or the sub itself? Maybe it is just propaganda, but Deputy Defence Minister Army General Nikolai Makarov insists they will get the missile in 2008.
Getting Bulava operational in 2008 may have been the original plan, but the missile apparently still needs a few flight tests. I think it is possible that the production and deployment will begin in 2008, but I'd be skeptical about it. We'll see.
I figured as much.
I was reviewing the Current Status section and am confused. You listed there were 14 subs, but when you separate them by bases there are only 12. Am I missing some? Are you counting some in refit?
Thanks.
As I understand, this is because Project 941 and Project 955 subs are not counted as "active". But I agree - I need some policy on submarine counting. Otherwise it gets confusing.
Has anyone information on the current status of strategic forces of other countries? I only found information on total amounts of nuclear weapons, but no more detailed information on the force structures.
Nuclear Notebook in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists is probably the best source of information on other nuclear forces.