The Strategic Rocket Forces are planning to conduct 11 missile launches in 2008. These will include regular training and life-extension launches as well as some launches that seem to be part of new missile development programs.
According to the commander of the Strategic Rocket Forces, Nikolai Solovtsov, the training and life-extension part of the 2008 launch program will include launches of SS-25/Topol, SS-19/UR-100NUTTH, and SS-18 missiles. It is not clear whether SS-18 will be a R-36MUTTH or R-36M2 - my guess is that it is the latter, since the R-36MUTTH appears to be beyond its service life of 25 years and gets tested in space launches anyway.
The test launches of R-36MUTTH in question are the three space launches from Dombarovskyy that will use the Dnepr launcher. In the second quarter of 2008 Dnepr will launch RapidEye satellites, in the fourth quarter - a cluster of four satellites (DubaiSat-1, Deimos-1, Nanosat-1B, and UK-DMC2). The date of the third Dnepr launch - of a THEOS satellite, also scheduled for 2008, has not been announced yet.
Two more test launches in 2008 will continue the RS-24 development program. According to Solovtsov, these two flights, if successful, will complete the flight test program of the RS-24 missile (which is a MIRVed version of Topol-M). The Rocket Forces then expect that they could start deployment of first RS-24 missiles in 2009.
One of the test flights in 2008 will be used to test some "prospective missile equipment". From the context it appears to be some kind of missile defense countermeasures project. I would guess that this is something that Russia has been doing in tests from Kapustin Yar to Sary-Shagan, the most recent of which took place on December 8, 2007. But we don't know at this point.
Probably the most intriguing part of the plan is in the two launches that will be conducted as part of "work on a missile system in research and development" (it is actually quite difficult to translate "отработка исследовательского ракетного комплекса" from Russian). It's hard to say what it is, but this is probably one of those "new missile systems" that figured in President Putin's grandiose plans. I hope that we'll know more about the missile once the flight tests begin, but the likelihood is that it is a "new SS-19", suggested by NPOMash. But it may be something else.
The book
Comments
> I hope that we'll know more about the missile once the flight tests begin, but the likelihood is that it is a "new SS-19", suggested by NPOMash. But it may be something else.
- Pavel, at last you've believed in possibility of new heavy-missile complex for RVSN...
- We may remember here the phrase from Nikolay Solovtsov's interview of December 17, 2007:
'Depending on [geopolitical] conditions and possible threats, Russian Strategic Missile Forces may be armed also with another missile complexes' [besides Topol-M].
('Исходя из обстановки и возможных угроз, на вооружение РВСН могут поступить и другие ракетные комплексы', [помимо Тополь-М]).
I don't understand. Why do the RSVN need another missile complex? The Topol-M is the mono-bloc and road mobile missile, the RS-24 is the MIRV, and the Bulava is the sub-based missile.
Well my thinking is they need those heavy/medium missile to make up for future retirement of SS-18 & SS-19.
The Topol-M with MIRV is just a stop gap measure and compared to SS-18 and SS-19 has a low throw up weight.
Probably they would built a new 100 Ton Missile ( solid or liquid / silo based ) and standardize their SS-18/19 replacement.
Quote "... Russian Strategic Missile Forces may be armed also with another missile complexes "
How about the so called “Pioneer-M”, a sort of two-stages Topol-m? Supposedly it will use the universal warheads and will have a range around 6.500 km, so technically speaking is an ICBM but with a IRBM work. I knew about this rumour several months ago but I don’t know how serious is.
Could a hypersonic glide vehicle be one of the unidentified test components?
Pavel:
Just curious. Can you provide a definitive number of existing SS-24, SS-19, and SS-18 silos on Russian soil? If memory serves, weren’t a number of SS-18 silos destroyed under START. Seems like 154 were left; just a fuzzy guess. Thanks.
Frank Shuler
USA
Constructivist: I'm sure NPOMash is using the "hypersonic manueverable warhead" as one of the selling points of its project (whether it makes sense or not).
By the way, a somewhat more detailed account of Solovtsov's press-conference mentiones that he specifically spoke about liquid-fuel missiles.
> I don't understand. Why do the RSVN need another missile complex? The Topol-M is the mono-bloc and road mobile missile, the RS-24 is the MIRV, and the Bulava is the sub-based missile.
- Some military experts believe that 'assured penetration' of NMD shield with a 'brute force' method may be achieved with middle- or heavy-class ICBMs only (like SS-18 Satan with 8800 kg throwweight or SS-19 Stiletto with near 4400 kg throwweight).
In fact, heavy missiles may carry a huge amounts of light and heavy decoys (up to the 40 heavy decoys for 'Satan', additionally to it's 10 'real' 800-kt warheads), as well as radar jamming stations, tinsels and so on.
- Contrary to the 'brute force' method, Topol-M with it's 1200 kg throwweight and single 550-kt warhead, needs to use more sofisticated technology to penetrate NMD shield, - like fast start, special contrmeasures to laser weapons, manouevring hypersound warhead etc.
Frank: SS-24, SS-19, and SS-27 missile all use the same silos. Russia has 120 of these in Tatishchevo and 60 in Kozelsk (which will be liquidated). Some SS-18 silos (in Uzhur) will be preserved and used for future SS-27 deployment.
Pavel:
I was just wondering the reason for “liquidating” the SS-19 silos in Kozelsk? It seems logical to me that Russia would want to hold on to these future SS-27 sites as opposed to modifying SS-18 silos, which I think would be more expensive to accomplish. That would also save the SS-18 complexes for the “future liquid heavy missile”. The Kozelsk decision is that financial-political or is there a military reason for its closure? Or, does the Kremlin only intend installing up to a maximum of 120 SS-27 Topol-Ms in general?
On a similar line of thought, has there been any discussion in the Russian military about new silo construction? The location of all present day Russian ICBM silos were made during the old Soviet days when the territorial make-up of the country was so different and the Soviet Union’s “enemy” was well defined. Today, are there better strategic locations for the Russian Strategic Rocket Force (SRF) ICBM missiles?
Frank Shuler
USA
Frank: Russia has more silos that it could possibly use. Right now the plan is to deploy 60 silo-based Topol-Ms. I doubt there will be many more after that.
The logic behind specific closure decisions (e.g. Kozelsk vs. Uzhur) might be linked to the fact that while most of the silos are 100 atm, some are 60 atm or even 30 atm.
I don't see why Russia would start building new silos - construction is really expensive. There was some discussion of it in the 1980s, but eventually the cost does not seem to be worth the trouble.
Pavel:
As always, thanks!
Frank Shuler
USA
New silo's are far less necessary then new tanks and aircraft, and far more expensive. When the T-90A's are being purchased at a rate of 31 annually, new silo's aren't anywhere near becoming a reality.
Feanor:
Interestingly, just reported Thales is now supplying a new thermal imaging system for Russian tanks. So, energy and monies are now being spent on the conventional Russian military in new ways. I can’t remember a time in my life Russia (Soviet Union) has allowed an “outside source” to provide equipment to the Kremlin’s military. Changing times.
Frank Shuler
USA
Yeah, though old news. They penned the deal for iirc 100 thermals a little while back. Apparently they're going to be going on to the first 3 tank battallions of the new T-90A's. At a rate of 31 annually, we are likely to see 1) a new Russian thermal imaging device 2) another deal with Thales in the next year or so.
Pavel, Is there any English version of the news of that press-conference of Gen Solovtsov?
> Interestingly, just reported Thales is now supplying a new thermal imaging system for Russian tanks.
> They penned the deal for iirc 100 thermals a little while back.
- Gentlemen, are you sure that these sensors from Thales are for Russian tanks?
Here the news of December 25, 2006:
RosOboronExport will sell to India 300 modernized tanks T-90. In modernized T-90, the equipment of Thales company will be used.
Original (in Russian):
http://www.vz.ru/economy/2006/12/25/62280.print.html
- By the way, - this is the typical example how erroneously people from West can interpret the processes in the modern Russia...
Russian:
You missed my point. So, the Thales supplied thermal imaging system is superior to the Russian supplied system for the T-90s?.
Frank Shuler
USA
> So, the Thales supplied thermal imaging system is superior to the Russian supplied system for the T-90s?
- Frank, - it just means that Indians like to 'combine' western electronics with Russian weapon platforms.
:-)
Russian:
Because they want to buy the best? :-)
Frank Shuler
USA
> Because they want to buy the best? :-)
- Not necessary, Frank. In the last years, strongly pronounced trend exists: our Indian partners prefer to buy the weapons they intend to repeat and even improve at their own (Indian) production plants.
- Usually, commercial western electronics are more 'open platform', than Russian one... For example, - you may be surprised to know that the 8-core Cell microprocessor from Sony Playstation 3 could be successfully used in a modern, commercial anti-air radar missile systems (from Mercury Computer Systems).
Russian:
Actually the Sony Play Station was imported to Iraq post-1991 and used in defense systems because of the UN general sanctions on computer equipment allowed into the country. Well documented.
So, what’s your take on the “new liquid fueled missile project”? Does Russia need a new system as it struggled to introduce in numbers the SS-27 and RS-24s into the SRF? Wouldn’t it make military sense to “build in numbers” before developing yet another design?
Frank Shuler
USA
> So, what’s your take on the “new liquid fueled missile project”? Does Russia need a new system as it struggled to introduce in numbers the SS-27 and RS-24s into the SRF? Wouldn’t it make military sense to “build in numbers” before developing yet another design?
- All is simple, Frank... I think the optimal value of strategic platforms in RSF is just reached. Now it's 452 missiles, according to Pavel's count:
213 - (1150 kg TW / 1 WH) - SS-25 Topol
54 - (1250 kg TW / 1 WH) - SS-27 Topol-M
110 - (4400 kg TW / 6 WH) - SS-19 Stiletto
75 - (8800 kg TW / 10 WH) - SS-18 Satan
-----------------------------------------
452 - TOTAL
(TW - throwweight; WH - number of warheads).
- Now the short analysis of the above table:
(a) As you can see, total number of Russian ICBMs is practically equal now to the number of Minutman IIIs deployed (now is 500, 450 soon);
(b) 'Topol-M' production rate of 12 - 14 per year, and possible lifetime of Topol-M of 20 years (SS-25 Topol stays for 23 - 25 years) give to us fleet of 'Topol-Ms' of (11 * 20 or 13 * 20) = 220 - 260 units deployed (if 1 missile will be spent for a test launch every year). So, SS-27 'Topol-M' should FULLY replace existing SS-25 Topol fleet; in other words, 213 SS-25 Topols should be fully replaced with 220 - 260 Topol-Ms till 2020.
(c) RS-24 - a 'MIRVed' Topol-M with 3 - 6 warheads and near 1500 - 1600 kg throwweight (prognosis), should first of all replace Stilettos; if 30 ('Ukrainian') Stiletos will still stay at their silos after 2020, the RS-24 should replace (110 - 30) = 80 Stilettos, and the maximal production rate in 2010 - 2020, should be 8 - 9 RS-24s per year;
(d) New heavy missile may be considered as a:
- replacer of 'SS-19 Stilleto' (110 ICBMs);
- replacer of 'SS-18 Satan' (75 ICBMs);
- replacer of both 'SS-18' and 'SS-19' (185 ICBMs);
- As to new missile throw-weight, - we must consider here all the range between middle- and heavy ICBMs; and the base points are:
(a) 4000 kg TW / 100 tonns lift-off mass (Stiletto);
(b) 6000 kg TW / 150 tonns lift-off mass;
(c) 8000 kg TW / 200 tonns lift-off mass (Satan).
- As to new heavy missile propellant, - of course it could be liquid-fuelled ICBM... But to have a solid-fuelled middle-class ICBM would be preferable, at least for our ecology - you can't imagine how many people here concerned about ecology... So why RSF should be an operator of middle- or heavy-class ICBM based on a toxic, corrosive and teratogenic redox pair [nitrogen tetroxyde] - [unsymmetrical dimethylhydrazine]? It's rather outdated tech...
- So, the changes in RSF till 2020 should be drawn as following:
213 (1150 kg TW / 1 WH) SS-25 Topol --> 220 (1250 kg TW / 1 WH) SS-27 Topol-M
110 (4400 kg TW / 6 WH) SS-19 Stiletto --> 80 (1600 kg TW / 6 WH) RS-24
75 (8800 kg TW / 10 WH) SS-18 Satan --> 100 new middle- or heavy-class ICBM
- If NMD deployment will be unleashed, all these plans and numbers will surely be corrected.
> tetroxyde
- Sorry, my typo: nitrogen tetroxide (N2O4 formulae, a.k.a. amyl here at Russia).
It's well documented that Russian defense orders increased significantly once Russian companies were willing to put in the option of western electronics for their merchandise. The T-90S thermals are just the tip of the iceberg. Su-30MK (the hugely financially successful multi-purpose fighter) actually came with the option of including foreign avionics, and as a result there are now Su-30MKI (indian variant) MKI(A) (indian variant modified for algeria, also referred to as MKA) MKM (for malasia) MK2 (naval-patrol two seater) MK2V (MK2 for venezuela) and MKK (for china). Each one uses varying degrees of foreign avionics and customization. So really we're seeing the emergence of a new trend, though it's unlikely this will be transferred to nuclear weapon systems (as their proliferation is illegal and certainly not as lucrative commercially).
> Su-30MK (the hugely financially successful multi-purpose fighter)...
- Feanor, Su-30MK is a 'completely export' fighter.
Just for export, in other words.
Russian:
Isn’t the Russian Air Force scheduled to receive their first Sukhoi Su-30x class fighter this year? The Su-35 I believe.
Frank Shuler
USA
> Isn’t the Russian Air Force scheduled to receive their first Sukhoi Su-30x class fighter this year? The Su-35 I believe.
- Again:
- Su-30 is 'only for export'. No Su-30s at Russian Air Forces!
- Su-35 is 'for internal use' primary (and, secondary - possibly, for export in future).
- Su-30 and Su-35 are quite different. For example, Su-30 has maximal speed of 2125 kmph, and Su-35 - 2440 kmph.
Feel the difference.
Russian:
Sorry for the Western term that wasn’t clear. The reference to a Su-30x class aircraft is all Sukhoi aircraft with a designation of Su-30 or better. Even the new two-place Su-34 “Fullback”, a completely different type of aircraft from the Su-35 air superiority fighter, falls into this description.
Frank Shuler
USA
The Su-34 is a completely different air craft. It's a tactical bomber. Two of them have already been received. 6 more are due this year. The Russian air force also operates about 5 Su-35's a 9 Su-30's already. No further purchases are planned as of right now. The new Su-35 with new engines and 5th gen avionics is undergoing testing right now, with the first production run slated for around 2011-12. It may or may not enter the Russian air force. It would have to compete against the PAK-FA design.
This board really needs an edit button below our posts. One thing to keep in mind, there is no Su-30x class of aircraft. There is an Su-30, Su-30MK, Su-32/34, Su-33, Su-35, and prototype Su-37 (project got cancelled). They're all different aircraft. Only the Su-30MK and Su-35 have some similarities in purpose. The baseline Su-30 is a mini-AWACS intended to help direct groups of Su-27's in combat.
And Russian yes I know that the K in MK stands for Kommercheskiy. The Su-35 is already planned for export also (with Venezuela already stating intent to purchase) while the Russian air force seems to be more interested in the PAK-FA then the Su-35 (which even with 5th gen avionics will be inferior to the F/A-22A).
As far I know, Su-35 will be used as technological development-bed that brings some 5th generation tech to 4th generation fighters. It will be certainly a production line for the Su-35 aimed at foreign markets, but for Russia the developments that arises from this project will be directed to the upgrade of Su-27 to the so called Su-27SM2 standard. That’s old Su-27 airframes will incorporate many Su-35 technologies.
Su-27 and Su-35 air frames are practically identical. Also here's the article dealing with Thales imagers. They are indeed for the Russian army. It seemed strage that you, Russian, tried to attribute a deal for 100 imagers, to the Indian contracts, (there were two of them btw, one for 310 tanks, and another for 347) when the numbers were so mismatched. At the same time Russia is (as of this year) producing it's third tank battalion of T-90A's and it would make sense for them to also have the thermals.
http://rnd.cnews.ru/army/news/top/index_science.shtml?2007/08/29/264013
No worries my friends, I have a good working knowledge of the Su-30 aircraft.
Including the:
Su-30 (Su-27PU)
Su-30 with canards
Su-30MKI
Su-30KI
Su-30KN
Su-30M
Su-30MK
Su-30M2
Su-30MKK
Su-30MKM
Su-30MKV
Su-30MK2
Su-30MK2V
Su-30MK3
Su-30MKA
By the way, any comments on Algeria’s decision to return its entire inventory of MIG 29SMT to Russia for credit? Seems like Algiers isn’t happy with the purchase.
Frank Shuler
USA
The Su-35 you are talking about is actually the Su-27BM and is all Russian. It is the stopgap Flanker between the old basic Su-27s with only unguided air to ground capability, the Su-27SM upgraded aircraft which is a multirole fighter bomber and the Pak-Fa which will be the next gen fighter. I doubt the PAK-FA will enter into Russian service rapidly as it will be rather expensive. The Su-27BM is to keep overall numbers high... much like the F-35 in the US will bolster numbers with the less than 200 F-22s being made.
Regarding the Su-30, only the Su-30 is in service in Russia in small numbers and it is the grandfather of the Su-30MKI. The Su-30 in Russian service is little more than a two seat Su-27 with a slightly better radar that was used for the PVO force as a mini awacs aircraft... it had no foreign electronics in it nor did it have any ground attack capability.
The Su-30MKI on the other hand was developed for the Indians and has Israeli, Indian, and French equipment in it. The Su-27BM has no non Russian equipment in it and is not really intended for export, though it might be made available in a few years time.
Regarding Algeria returning the Migs, I think it is great news... they will be the first Mig-29SMT in Russian AF service and I think that a multirole Mig-29 makes more sense than a multirole Flanker. If you compare it to the US airforce the flanker is the F-15 or now F-22, while the Fulcrum is the smaller lighter F-16 or F-35... a fighter bomber that is used as a bomb truck much of the time...
GarryB:
Good points. I would add however that Russia needs to desperately update its aviation logistic system to combat support both its foreign military sales and its own air force. Algeria is returning the Mig-29SMTs because they can’t keep them in the air. Peru and Malaysia tell similar stories trying to support Russian aircraft. China has had trouble keeping its Sukhoi Su-30MKK operational, certainly in comparison with its domestically produced Su-27s. Only India, who co-produced the Sukhoi Su-30MKI, can claim satisfaction with the aircraft. The Sukhoi Su-30 is a tremendous aircraft design; when it flies.
Frank Shuler
USA