Topol-M: Missile Defense Penetrator
by Michal Fiszer

The most promising missile in the Russian inventory is the RT-2PM2 (also called RT-2PMU; 15Zh62 according to the GRAU designation system) Topol-M, known in NATO as the SS-27. The Topol-M has a weight of 47.1 tons, a length of 22.7 m, and a diameter of 1.86 m. The system also has very high accuracy: 180-m side error and 230-m error in distance. In 2006 there are to be 50 such missiles in service, and it was also recently announced that first regiment (10 missiles) will be issued the mobile version of the missile. It is planned that 220 Topol-M missiles will be deployed through 2012, while older types (SS-18 and SS-19) will be withdrawn.

Development of the Topol-M began in 1991 at the Moscow Institute of Thermal Technology and was officially confirmed by a decree from President Boris Yeltsin in February 1993. The design team was headed by Boris Lagutin and Yuri Solomonov. The first launch test took place on Dec. 20, 1994. The first test of the mobile launcher (and the 15th overall test) took place on April 20, 2004. Production at GPO "Votkinsky Zavod" in Votkinsk got underway in 1998. The first missile was declared ready on Dec. 27, 1998, and the system was officially accepted into service on April 28, 2000.

The Topol-M has three stages, with the first stage having three rocket motors developed by the Soyuz Federal Center for Dual-Use Technologies in Moscow. This gives the missile a much higher acceleration than other ICBM types. It enables the missile to accelerate to the speed of 7,320 m/sec. and to travel a flatter trajectory to distances of up to 10,000 km. The missile carries a single warhead but has a high throw weight: about 1,200 kg. This enables three warheads to be fitted, when necessary. Presently, the capability is used to carry realistic decoys that have the same weight and radar cross-section as the actual warhead. These decoys reenter the atmosphere at the same speed and with a similar thermal signature as the actual warhead. Unlike "balloon" and "reflector" decoys, the mock reentry vehicles are not stripped away by the atmosphere and remain effective through the terminal phase. Also, the decoys are probably able to maneuver, as the actual warhead can. The warhead and decoys are all covered with radar-absorbing materials (RAM) to reduce their signatures.

Reportedly, the warhead and decoys are also equipped with active-deception jamming systems, triggered as soon as the thermal cover is dropped after decelerating in the atmosphere. The missile was developed to overcome the eventual defense system under development by the US, but not all of the details have been unveiled. Nevertheless, if the Topol-M works as described, it will be able to overcome many of the discriminator and hit-to-kill technologies being developed for the US NMD. According to a statement by Sergei Ivanov, the Russian minister of defense, each Topol-M will have an 87% chance of penetrating the GMD system.

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I had done a small write up on Topol-M , to the best of my understanding. Its a Jan 2005 write up: http://forum.keypublishing.co.uk/showpost.php?p=823372&postcount=2

Thank you. It's interesting, but I'd be cautious about some of the information. For example, "three rocket motors" of the first stage is, as I understand, a mistake of a journalist, who wanted to say the missile has three stages.

Ivanov's claim about 87% probability of penetrating missile defenses is quite bizarre - there is no way a number like this would be known, let alone with this kind of accuracy. It would be interesting to take a look at the interview in which he said that.

I would also have some questions about the numbers - I haven't seen the number of 220 missiles mentioned anywhere.

Hello Pavel, This is the link which speaks about the future 87% probability. It quotes some unknown General Staff. (See also Russian report)

Indeed the 3 rocket motor represents the 3 stage.

This link mentions the development of a new Liquid Fuel ICBM under development. As I had mentioned in the Tula Blog, The Russian DM Ivanov or the CIC SF Gen. Nikolai Solovtsov had mentioned about it recently.

Development of a new generation ICBM, possibly with liquid-fuel propellant, appears under way. According to several news reports, the new ICBM will possess a throw weight of 4.4 tons (similar to the SS-19) and be able to carry up to 10 warheads.

Thanks
Austin

I wouldn't quite trust Russian generals with 87% - as I said, these numbers are hardly known with any accuracy at all (why 87 and not 90?).

As for the new liquid-fuel ICBM, NPOmash (the Chelomei design bureau) may have some plans about SS-19 follow-on, but I don't think it's anything real (at least at this point).

There is some confusion related to the number of road-mobile versions of the Topol-M missile to be procured under the 2006 State Defense Order. Ivan Safronov has written in Kommersant on 2 November 2005 that missile division in Teikovo will get three such missiles in 2006. Solovtsov was talking in his interview about just one regiment of road-mobile Topol-Ms to join Teikovo division in 2006. Reading those two sources, one might think that there are just three, not six road-mobile Topol-Ms scheduled for deployment in 2006, and therefore the other three should be silo-based.

Did I get it right, or do I miss something? What is the source for six road-mobile missiles which you have mentioned?

But doesn't a regiment have nine mobile missiles?

I am sure you're right, but this is not the point.

I am just trying to understand your message above. Why do you think there will be six road-mobile Topol-Ms procured in 2006? Where was this figure published?

Well, I can't find the specific source, but it may well be my (reasonably educated) guess. So far, silo-based missiles were deployed in groups of four or six, so deployment of three Topol-Ms in silos would be quite unusual. Mobile missiles, on the contrary, come in units of three, so it would be natural to have two units deployed. Besides, and this is important, nobody mentioned silo-based missile deployment in 2006. But I may be wrong, of course.

Thank you. I think I understand your logic now. But Russia is test-firing road-mobile Topol-Ms every now and then, so the empty launcher would need a refill, wouldn't it? Could it be the case that some of those six missiles to be procured next year are earmarked for refill/storage?

No, test launches are conducted from Plesetsk, so there is no need to keep a "spare" silo (and it's not something the Rocket Forces has ever done anyway). As for "storage" missiles, these are never counted at all, so anything produced for flight tests, storage, etc. would come on top of the six missiles that will be deployed.

Topol M missile is a powerful type of missiles. Deploying more Topol M would result to a balance with the US nuclear force, NATO, and China. i think that Russian Ministry of Defense should have good policies for developing new missiles such as Topol M.