Reports about an upcoming demise of the Barguzin rail-mobile ICBM program turned out to be true - the missile fell victim to the recent budget cuts. But other program, Project 4202, is said to survive. It remains a priority (and appear to have a flight test scheduled this year).
The book
Comments
Hi Pavel - see my latest comments about Dombarovski silos if you like
http://russianforces.org/blog/2015/06/summary_of_the_project_4202_de.shtml
I wonder what kind of payload penalty is expected for this kind of vehicles. With the treaty limits being 700 deployed ICBMs and 1550 warheads, if the heavy missile like UR-100 can carry just one (any potential future ICBM is unlikely to be heavier, i don't think they are going to build a monster rocket like SS-18), it means cutting number of warheads by half.
It is kind of a good confirmation of efficiency of U.S. missile defence, or at least Russian expectations thereof?
A large number of ICBMs will carry MIRVs, so getting to 1550 won't be a problem. Then, there are SLBMs with multiple warheads as well.
A hypothetical sea based system of thousands of full range interceptors representing a vast superiority over the current Aegis system would still be easily overwhelmed, depleted and defeated for much the same reason that a large constellation of thousands of satellite interceptors(also currently hypothetical and requiring a ten fold increase in US space launch capacity)would also be defeated. The Union of Concerned Scientists cited an in depth analysis on the potential capabilities of any such system conducted by the American Physical Society which concluded it to be "inherently ineffective" and "easy to overwhelm". Two or three dozen mirv-equipped missiles launched along the same low altitude trajectory would result in many hundreds of very high speed objects(warheads and decoys), all of which would have to be targeted individually. This initial barrage would deplete the comparatively few ships that would be close enough to even attempt an intercept, thus clearing the way for any and all missile warheads that would follow.