The Rocket Forces announced the completion of the Topol-M/RS-24 deployment in Teykovo. According to the report, the Teykovo division now has two Topol-M regiments and two RS-24 regiments, for the total of 18 road-mobile missiles.
Deployment of the second RS-24 regiment in Teykovo began in December 2011. The 18 Topol-M/RS-24 missiles have been already accounted in my New START estimate (that was, in fact, incorrect - I should have counted 15 missiles as deployed at Teykovo).
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Comments
According to the past and current numbers of deployed ICBMs Russia produced in the years 2006 until 2010 yearly 8 and in 2011 12 SS-27 Mod 1 / 2 ("Topol-M" / "Yars") ICBMs. This is an increase in production of 50 percent in the Votkinsk Machine Building Plant. In 2011 former Prime Minister Vladimir Putin announced the intention to double the ballistic missile production starting from 2013. In 2012 Russia also produce at least 12 ICBMs and can deploy in December 4 silo-based "Topol-M" in Tatishchevo, 3 ground-mobile "Yars" in Novosibirsk, and 2 silo-based "Yars" in Kozel´sk. If Russia can double the missile production in 2012 with 16 ICBMs, the RVSN can deploy 6 ground-mobile "Yars" (2 missile battalions) in Novosibirsk and has 1 non-deployed ICBM (maybe for a new test launch), or it can deploy 6 silo-based "Yars" in Kozel´sk. But it looks like more that this year 12 ICBMs will be produced and 16 in 2013.
..............................2009.....2010.....2010.....2011.....2011.....2012.....2012
...............................Dec......July......Dec.......July.......Dec.......July......Dec
Deployed ICBMs
RS-12M2 (silo)..........50........50........52.........52........56........56.........60(60)
RS-12M2 (mobile).....18........18........18.........18........18........18.........18(18)
RS-24 (silo)................0.........0..........0..........0...........0..........0...........2(2)
RS-24 (mobile)...........3.........3..........6...........9........15........18.........21(24)
Total........................71........71........76.........79........89........92.......101(104)
(see: "Three more RS-24 will be deployed in 2011")
The so-called "new ICBM" which is designated as "Avangard" and was test launched on 27 September 2011 and 23 May 2012 from a road-mobile launcher in Plesetsk is a prototype modification (or "variant" under the New START Treaty) of the RS-24 with a new warhead bus or deployment module and will be deployed in 2013. Because all warhead loadings of the RS-24 are secret and therefore speculative it is possible that the old "Yars" is equipped only with 3 and the new "Avangard" will be equipped maybe with 6 MIRVs. If this is correct the "Avangard" will be named as the SS-27 Mod-X-3 in its test phase.
On 22 October 2009 the "Washington Times" reported that Paula A. DeSutter, the former assistant secretary of state for verification and compliance, said "the Russian military has conducted tests of the RS-24 that demonstrated the capability of carrying three multiple-independently targetable (MIRV) warheads, but without actually putting dummy warheads on the test missile" (http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2009/oct/22/inside-the-ring-8537762/?page=all). "Vedomosti" on 15 January 2010 cited a source of the Russian Ministry of Defense that the RS-24 is equipped with three warheads. The statement of Ms. DeSutter was made after the third RS-24 test launch and it is relative unlikely but not impossible that the missiles were tested with a procedure for dispensing of 3 reentry vehicles and later the missiles were deployed maybe with 6 MIRVs. If a new self-contained dispensing mechanism (SCDM) or post-boost propulsion system (PBPS) with a new deployment module will be deployed with 6 MIRVs, normally it must be tested before with a procedure for dispensing of 6 reentry vehicles, whether or not a reentry vehicle was actually released.
Furthermore it was announced by the RVSN that the RS-24 "Yars" will be deployed not only in the ICBM bases of Novosibirsk and Kozel´sk but also with ground-mobile launchers in Irkutsk.
http://www.ria.ru/defense_safety/20120521/654190471.html
http://structure.mil.ru/structure/forces/strategic_rocket/news/more.htm?id=11348929@egNews