On February 5, 2010 President of Russia formally approved the new military doctrine, whose text is now available, and a document called "Basic principles of state's policy in the area of nuclear deterrence through 2020", which appears to be classified.
Nikolay Sokov, who has been following the Russian doctrinal debate closely, has a detailed analysis. The key point, however, is that despite the earlier signs that the doctrine would expand the use of nuclear weapons and even allow for preventive and preemptive strikes, the final document is quite reasonable. As far as nuclear weapons are concerned, the key statement of the new doctrine is that
Russia reserves the right to use nuclear weapons in response to a use of nuclear or other weapons of mass destruction against her and (or) her allies, and in a case of an aggression against her with conventional weapons that would put in danger the very existence of the state.
This is, actually, not bad, since the scope of the use of nuclear weapons is quite limited. For example, a limited conventional aggression against Russia would not trigger a nuclear response. Neither would a "regime change" in an allied country, as long as it doesn't cross the nuclear threshold.
Of course, it is a declaratory policy and one can argue that things may change in a heat of a crisis. This is true, but the doctrine sets a baseline, which says that Russia is quite restrained in setting goals for its nuclear forces.
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I think the new doctrine is quite reasonable. There is hardly any rhetoric as far as the use of nuclear arms is concerned. Russia needs to restructure its armed forces as early as possible. Without modern weapons Russia hardly can do much.
Pavel, would you please give some lights on new missile defense (land based Aegis system with SM-3 interceptor) plans of America in central Europe (Romania and some other countries)? Russia already expressed her serious concerns about new plans.
I'm not sure the Romania deal is something real. I wouldn't be surprised if Romania wanted to be part of that, but I'm not sure there is a specific plan to deploy anything there.
Parimal Debnath
Just to add to the discussion.
SM-3 Block IIA is scheduled for introduction in the 2015 time-line and will be available to the US military in both a ship and mobile-land configuration. The land based unit will used a modified version of the X-band radar system developed for the THAAD missile system. The US is developing various space-based assets to provide target recognition & acquisition and the battlefield management system of the mobile SM-3 system is designed to accept a wide range of sensors, (space based, ground, air) to acquire and strike targets with a Advanced Kinetic Warhead. (AKW)
The US is throwing money into this project after rejecting the previous GBI fixed silo base scheme that was to be installed in Poland with the command & control X-band radar system in the Czech Republic. The SM-3 system was deemed more cost effective and adaptable to changing needs. The SM-3 system is designed to be transportable in USAF C-17 cargo planes and to quickly be placed operational. Poland has already agreed to accept the SM-3 system and a US-maned Patriot III battery is now operational in Poland to provide a limited anti-ballistic missile defense today (very limited) and support the new mobile SM-3 system when deployed. Romania's government is in the process of approval.
The time-line seems to be 2015-18 for introduction.
It is speculated that US AEGIS ships might be stationed in Romania as an interim solution. (Constanţa perhaps?)
Frank Shuler
USA
Thanks Frank for giving detail information. I have some more queries. Will SM-3 be capable of intercepting ICBM? Is it similar to the one that intercepted an American dysfunctional satellite?
Parimal Debnath
Actually, only the SM-3 Block I and Block IA versions have been deployed to the fleet and the next step in the evolution of the SM-3 is the new Block IB version now entering US naval service. It is this missile system, a modified Block I, that took down the American reconnaissance satellite (USA-193) in low orbit back in 2008. The existing Block I systems are designed to engage short and intermediate ranged ballistic missiles and ICBMs in boost phase. The Block IIA is a completely redesigned system, using a 21 inch diameter missile frame and an advanced control surface. This missile will also have a new Advanced Kinetic Warhead (AKW) and be capable of greater range and intercept speed. It is this system that also will be procured in a land mobile version in 2015 and have ICBM kill capabilities. There is a farther development in the 2018 time frame for new sensors and operational capabilities with an improved booster. In fact, work on the SM-3 system is projected well into the 2020s with many updates and enhancements planned.
The US Navy’s SM-3 System has logged some of the best test results of any anti-missile system currently in development by the United States. The SM-3 is well funded and enjoys the broad support of both the Pentagon and the US Congress.
Frank Shuler
USA
Another Topol-M regiment entered service at Tatischevo. I was wondering if anyone had details about that.
Nothing has been deployed yet. The sixth regiment will be completed by the end of the year.
The detailed account of two key elements of the new Russian Military Doctrine is available at the comment made by Kozin " A New Look at the Military Doctrine" published in the Moscow Times, 2 March 2010 (www.themoscowtimes.com). He examined two issues: 1) no-first use clause and 2) relationships between NATO and Russia. Unlike Mr.Sokov, he claims that the new doctrine does not have any word like "preventive" and "pre-emptive" nuclear strike.
I think I remember that piece in the Moscow Times - it didn't strike me as very thoughtful. I'm not sure where did you find Nikolai Sokov's saying that the new doctrine has anything to say about preventive or preemptive strikes - it's not in his article.
There is a farther development in the 2018 time frame for new sensors and operational capabilities with an improved booster. In fact, work on the SM-3 system is projected well into the 2020s with many updates and enhancements planned.