While the United States prepares to vote in the presidential elections, the current administration is doing the groundwork on post-START arrangement. As I understand, the administration adopted a dual-track approach.
First, it is making the steps that would allow extension of the START Treaty - the next meeting of the Joint Compliance and Inspection Commission (in November?) will have extension of START on the agenda, which is supposed to satisfy the treaty requirement that the sides discuss the extension at least one year before expiration of the treaty.
At the same time, the United States prepared a draft of a new agreement, which is supposed to replace START. The draft is a compromise between a "SORT-plus", suggested by DoD, and a longer 100-page document prepared by the State Department - it is said to be about 60 pages long.
The book
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Pavel, one of the last news releases from the Pentagon and the US State Department suggested Russia was linking American conventional arms control to any post-START (2009) agreement. Do you think this is just posturing or is this Russia’s position? It would seem both Russia and the United States have much to gain and nothing to lose by simply extending the existing START treaty. However, trying to amend this treaty or negotiating a new arms agreement in just a short time is politically fraught with risk; I think impossible. How do think this will play out?
Frank Shuler
USA