Anatoly Perminov, head of Roskosmos, told the press today that the military industrial commission will meet soon to determine the number of test launches of the new Bulava missile that will take place this year.
What's more interesting, Perminov said (or at least was quoted as saying) that the commission will also consider "the required changes of technical characteristics of the missile". It is not clear what kind of changes these might be. My guess is that it is somehow related to the problems that Bulava experienced in flight tests. But it could be something else. I hope we'll find out.
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Comments
Pavel, it is very interesting comment indeed. I am looking forward to knowing more information! Well, I don't think test flights of Bulava will be completed by 2008. That means Bulava will not be entered into active service before 2010!
Hello,
one question: In which way is Roskosmos, the civil space agency, connected with the Bulava project? I mean, NASA has not much to do with Trident.
Martin: I had the same question and was told that it's, in fact, simple - MITT is formally under Roskosmos jurisdiction.
I just read today that Nezavisimoye Voyennoye Obozreniye in Russian 25 Jan 08 reported that it was decided that the Bulava will not be completed until 2012.
"It has been decided to regard the Bulava launch failures as "noncatastrophic," to continue testing, and to defer from 2008 to 2012 the MITT missile complex's scheduled adoption for operational service. Although the plans to replace the Sineva with this RK [missile complex] after 2030 have no military-strategic, systemic, or technological basis."
This article also discusses their opinion that they should just convert the Project 955 to SSGNs like the US and create another new class to support the Sineva.
I'd be skeptical about this particular NVO piece, but it does seem that Bulava will be delayed substantially.
Pavel:
Does that delay in the final development of Bulava mean that the new Borej Cass sub will have to wait for an appropriate armament till 2012? Or are there any alternative weapons for this ship?
Greetings from bernd
Bernd: I think at this point it is too late to consider another missile for Borey. And I don't think it is necessary - it's not like Russia needs Bulava.
Pavel,
"it's not like Russia needs Bulava."
What do you mean with this statement? The Borey cannot support another missile as of now. So unless they design another new boat for the Sineva what are their options?
Rich
Rich: Assuming that Russia needs submarines, Delta IV/Sineva would do the job for at least ten more years. I don't think there is a rush to get Borey/Bulava operational.
Well...a waste of resources to build (at least) another two of them...only to find out that they eventually need to get reconstructed in order to adapt another weapon system.
Regarding Pavels comment it would be more wise to hold further construction work and to re-consider the whole thing lets say in 2012...maybe with the conclusion to design a brand new type ready for 2020 and a then proved weapon...
Pavel:
Rich:
Bernd:
Martin:
I was surprised by the announcement in several ways. It’s one thing to say that Bulava will undergo additional testing and deploy after the 2009 date previously stated. However, to say this testing has been extended to 2012 is interesting. Does this have to do really with a revised testing cycle or have the “problems” with Bulava already been identified and a “remanufacturing” of the Bulava missile itself is required pushing the deployment date to post-2012? I’ll wager the later.
I think also we lose track where Russia is today on the Delta IV (Project 667BDRM) fleet. Only three of these submarines have undergone the overhauling necessary to support the SS-N-23 Sineva missiles and the updating to hull, sonar, and combat systems. I’ll wager the K-114 Tula isn’t qualified yet to patrol with Sineva. It will be a push to have all six Delta IVs fully operational by 2012.
I think the setback to Bulava and the idling of the Project 955 boats is significant.
Frank Shuler
USA
> I think also we lose track where Russia is today on the Delta IV (Project 667BDRM) fleet.
- Frank, here the current state of Russian Strategic Navy:
http://img217.imageshack.us/my.php?image=navyq108vj4.png
- At last the numbers I asking for! Thank you, Frank!
(a) 450 Minutemen III ICBMs with 150 armed with two W-78 warheads and 300 singularly armed with the W-87. Total warheads: 600
(b) 14 Trident Submarines (only 12 deployable at any given time) armed with the D5 missile and 4 warheads each, either the W-76 or W-88. Total warheads: 1152
(c) B-83 and B-61 gravity bombs for the B-2 stealth bomber and Air Launched Cruise Missiles (ALCM) with the W-80 warhead for the B-52 fleet. Total warheads: up to 448
- If USA will not 'Going Bankrupt: The US's Greatest Threat' (by Chalmers Johnson):
http://atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/JA24Ak04.html
Pavel:
Last I read was 12 as the minimum number they desired. That was in 2000. Has there been any other official statements since then?
Frank:
What I found most intriguing was the "recommendation" to scrap the Borey as an SSBN and convert to SSGN and design a new boat. If they really are going to be delayed until 2012, this is a very cost effective idea. The Sineva is a proven (luckily not really proven) model and redesigning the Borey to carry the Sineva would not be that difficult. Depending how far they are on the Vladimir they may be able to redo that one and then just commence a new boat. Or maybe pride is in the way and they are just too stubborn to give up.
Rich
Rich:
I defer to your judgment here but I would have thought a redesign from the solid fueled Bulava to the liquid propellant SS-N-23 Sineva would have been a deal-breaker on the Project 955s.
I remember back in the mid-‘90s when the SS-N-28 Bark was cancelled; the delivery schedule for the Borey-class was delayed for a decade. The submarine needed to be redesigned to accommodate the new missile, the R-30 Bulava (SS-NX-30), and the submarine project name was changed to Project 955. This change gave the Design Bureau Rubin and Sevmash fits.
One thing is beginning to be clear, the Bulava and, thus, the Project 955s are in trouble. I think the Kremlin will get all this sorted out in time; I believe the Bulava’s issues are serious but not "terminal". There will be yet another delay to the “Yuri Dolgorukiy”, a submarine whose keel was first laid on 2/11/96 and is not operational yet.
Frank Shuler
USA
> There will be yet another delay to the “Yuri Dolgorukiy”, a submarine whose keel was first laid on 2/11/96 and is not operational yet.
- There was a GREAT financial crysis at Russia in 1998, - please don't forget about it. So, few years was simply LOST.
- But now, Russia has a lot of petrodollars, - the yesterday's record was 485 billion dollars, a 4 % increase for the last 6 weeks...