The Bulletin Online, March 26, 2007
By Pavel Podvig
Developments during the last several weeks seem to suggest that Russia is reconsidering its nuclear cooperation with Iran. Just months ago, Moscow pledged with great fanfare that the Bushehr reactor would be ready for the first shipment of fuel in March and would reach criticality in September 2007. But in February, Russia backtracked, claiming it had to delay the fuel delivery because of missed payments. As for the reactor's launch, the only thing that's certain is that it will not happen in September. The situation became even more puzzling after reports that Russia warned Iran that Moscow might suspend the project if Tehran does not stop its enrichment program and that some Russian technical specialists are returning home.
Are we seeing a radical turn in Russian policy? Probably not, but the situation is more complicated.
The Bushehr nuclear power reactor has been one of the most contentious issues between the United States and Russia for more than a decade. The project began in the mid-1990s as part of the Russian nuclear industry's effort to sustain itself. Gradually, Bushehr came to symbolize the many disagreements that the United States and Russia engaged in during this time. The United States maintained that by providing nuclear assistance to Iran, Russia recklessly (if not deliberately) undermined U.S. security and stability in the Middle East, and that Russia's inability to stop the program illustrated the weakness and corruption of the Russian state. Russia, in turn, insisted that its assistance to Iran was completely legitimate, arguing that Iran wasn't trying to build a nuclear weapon and that the construction of a nuclear power plant in Bushehr would not bring Iran any closer to that goal anyway.
The disclosure of a previously undeclared Iranian uranium enrichment program in 2002 proved both sides of the debate wrong. Russia apparently did not know that Iran had a program with weapon potential, while the United States did not realize that it had been "barking up the wrong tree." Iran got its centrifuges from Pakistan, not Russia, and the Bushehr reactor did not play any significant role in that effort.
As the international community (rightly) focused its attention on the Iranian enrichment program, the construction in Bushehr continued. To be sure, the United States still wanted the project terminated, but it was no longer a high priority. For Russia, the Bushehr project was no longer as commercially attractive as it appeared in the 1990s; the construction delays and the spent fuel take-back arrangement that Russia made took their toll. Still, Russia was strongly committed to finishing the construction, if only to prove that it could complete the project despite U.S. pressure. When questions about the Iranian enrichment program led to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to refer Iran to the U.N. Security Council, Russia supported sanctions against Iran, but only after Moscow made sure the sanctions wouldn't affect Bushehr's construction.
Now Russia seems to be deeply confused about what to do next. Rosatom, the Russian atomic energy agency, would certainly like to finish the project, if only to keep the option of building more reactors in Iran open. But it cannot ignore that nuclear cooperation with the United States could potentially bring access to the much more lucrative U.S. market. For example, Rosatom believes that it is in a good position to provide uranium enrichment services to the United States. It was hardly a coincidence that the problems with Iranian payments began when Russia and the United States were putting the finishing touches on the so-called "123 Agreement," which would make cooperation on nuclear issues possible.
Rosatom, however, is not setting Russian foreign policy, so it cannot terminate the Bushehr project. There are other powerful institutions in Russia that would like to keep the current Russian-Iranian cooperation going, even if this means confronting the West (think of arms sales, for example). Besides, Rosatom most likely understands that abandoning Bushehr now would deal a serious blow to its reputation as a commercial partner. In this situation, resorting to delays and hoping that the situation will somehow resolve itself is the only option.
The paradox of the current situation is that as much as it is in the international community's best interest for Iran to suspend its enrichment program, termination of the Bushehr project or further delays with fuel shipments would be the wrong decision. Doing so would undermine any confidence in future arrangements of guaranteed fuel supply for nuclear power reactors. Whatever elaborate schemes the international community comes up with to provide reliable access to nuclear fuel--fuel banks, IAEA oversight, etc.--they may as well not exist if they're not insulated from political pressure.
The correct thing to do in this situation would be to ship the fuel to Iran and to complete Bushehr's construction. The Security Council still can, and should, impose stringent sanctions on Iran, demanding a resolution of all the issues related to its enrichment program. But the Bushehr reactor should be left out of it. This sounds counterintuitive because it is. But this is probably the only way to provide an effective guarantee of reliable fuel supplies, and therefore, ensuring that the international community could successfully contain the spread of enrichment technology.
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Comments
I believe that the best strategy for Russia is to prolong this process for as long as possible, while deliberately creating an illusion of uncertainty and deep confusion. US chooses “carrots and sticks” approach, while Russia operating by the “The wolf be full, the sheep unharmed” principal, but killing two birds with one stone can be tricky.
Obviously US want Russia to immediately abandon Bushehr reactor construction and contain the spread of enrichment technology. US offered numerous economic incentives to Russia and have increased political pressure by announcing its plans to place Missile Defense installations near Russian borders. Russia on the other hand wants to fulfill its obligations to Iran and complete the Bushehr project, not for the short term gain, since is no longer commercially attractive, but rather to save its reputation and credibility in order to attain future projects. So far Russia gained WTO vote form US, 123 agreement and possible removal of Jackson-Vanik Amendment, and lifting the anti-dumping restrictions.
Bushehr project is still on the table without definitive completion date and Iranians without a choice, dazed and confused running amok looking for funds to settle a bill from a “collection agency”
Russia is in an unenviable position of her own creation. If she stops the project, her international prestige is weakened. If she finishes the Bushehr nuclear power reactor, the United States will view this as aiding our principle adversary and will respond diplomatically, economically and militarily. Russia’s decision to continue will also earn the scorn of the United Nations on this issue, led by France and the EU. The fact that France and the United States are in relatively mutual agreement on this issue and that France has taken the lead in formatting the European response speaks volumes. Politically, the US and France usually can’t agree on the time of day. There is no doubt in my mind; Russians play the best game of chess. However, remember it was the Persians that invented the game. It is Tehran that is moving the players around on the board and dictating terms and strategies. In a convoluted diplomatic effort to play Iran against the United States and the United States against Iran for Russia’s political advantage, the Kremlin may very well learn it is Russia that is “in play”.
Frank Shuler
USA
Persians invented the game of chess; however, Chinese invented a rocket and they are still twenty years behind. Most likely Russia will not complete Bushehr power plant. It is not because US will threaten Russia of possible military action and economic sanctions if Russia ultimately finishes the project, this is unrealistic and farfetched. Remember, Pakistan provided Iran with enrichment technologies and US still considers them as a major strategic partner in war on terror.
Russia will probably stop Bushehr construction because of US air strike against Iran’s enrichment facilities. That way Russia will not weaken its international prestige by going back on her word. It will be rather difficult to finish a project under barrage of tomahawk cruise missiles and most of the world will understand that.
Alex Goncharov:
Chess and rockets; touché.
I don’t think the United States has really “threatened” Russia over the Bushehr Project as much as its no longer in Russia’s best interest completing the project because of the political, economic, and military pressure America is able to bring to bear. At this time in history, Russia’s relationship with the United States and the EU is more important than Russian “friendship” with Iran. Perhaps it’s that simple.
The Persian Gulf today is like the Balkans in 1914. I fear one spark will ignite a war of devastating consequences. The United States has held Tehran accountable since November 4, 1979 for a whole litany of problems from supporting terrorism in the civil war in Lebanon, creating instability in Gaza and the West Bank in order to prevent a Palestinian-Israeli diplomatic solution, to our current wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. Realistic or not, and I think not, these are America’s “conclusions”. Behind every issue in the Middle East, there is a Persian “Trojan Horse”. There is so much suspicion and intrigue and so little dialog. Perhaps Russia can be a voice of reason here for both sides. I sincerely hope so.
Frank Shuler
USA
The hype US creates around Iran has nothing to do with any real threat, but only to deny Russia or for that matter any other country any foothold in this oil rich middle eastern country. Pakistan today is the nerve centre of all terrorist activities. But the U.S. considers Pak as an Ally!! How much is Iran behind Pakistan, in nuclear technology is a fact everyone knows. Hence any one with minimal intelligence can see through this game of U.S. Russia would be stupid if it gives in to this U.S. propaganda.
KA Sharma:
Regardless of the political spin, Iran and the United States are on a collusion course, long in coming. This day of reckoning will come regardless who is President of the United States or whatever political party holds power in the US Congress. This day of reckoning will come regardless of the military situation in Iraq or Afghanistan. Russia needed to make a decision as to her intentions given this political reality. With the withdrawal of her technicians and support for the Bushehr Reactor Project, Russia has made its decision known.
Frank Shuler
USA
Russia must start English news programs all over the world to tell the truth about the U.S. and its real intentions in the world which is to dominate and deny any economic benefits to other nations under military threat. There is no solution except to counteract this by telling people the truth. A high percentage of U.S. national income is earned through military sales. So while it goes about sermonizing others on disarmament its own laboratories are working round the clock to develop futuristic weapons. Isn't it ironic that the most militarized nation in the world tells others to demilitarize? Russia must also spread Russian language and ethos to other parts of the world for a better appreciation of its view point.
To the poster above. The Russian language will never achieve dominance with English. English will continue to dominate the world for centuries to come.
It does not matter what Russia does anyways. According to prophecy all of Russia will be destroyed in a consuming fire when it attemtps to invade Isreal =)
Here the latest news:
Russia Continue To Supply Nuclear Fuel For Bushehr (In Russian).