Russia successfully launched the Cosmos-2422 satellite today. Everything seems to suggest that it is indeed a new US-KS/Oko early-warning satellite, which would confirm the earlier reports. However, until NORAD published orbital data it would be difficult to say whether Cosmos-2422 will replace one of the two HEO satellites that are currently in orbit or complement them. Stay tuned. A detailed post will follow.

Meanwhile, you may want to check my new paper "Reducing the risk of an accidental launch". Appendix B there has an update on the status of the Russian (and U.S.) early-warning system. I guess I'll have to update it now.