Deploying Topol-M with more than one warhead has often been mentioned as an option that Russia can choose in response to U.S. missile defense system. Right now, MIRVing of Topol-M is prohibited by the START treaty, but the treaty will expire after 2009. Will Russia choose to deploy multiple warheads on its Topol-M missiles?
Probably not. Although development of a MIRV warhead for Topol-M seems to be technically possible, if Russia decides in 2009 that it needs MIRVed missiles (a fairly big if in my view), it will probably choose to deploy the Bulava missile in this role.
Bulava from the very beginning was marketed by its developer, MITT, as a universal missile, which can be deployed on land as well as at sea. This point was recently underscored by the defense minister and the president himself, so it seems that the missile will have this capability from the very beginning. Besides, adapting an SLBM for land-based silo basing should not be difficult at all (unlike trying to deploy land-based missile on a submarine).
No details about Bulava have been released so far, but it seems extremely unlikely that a missile deployed on submarines will carry one warhead. It is almost certain to be MIRVed, so if Russia wants to deploy a new MIRVed missile in silos on land, it will not have to go an extra mile and develop a new warhead for Topol-M - it will have Bulava.
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I am very interested in two questions:
1. How many MIRV warheads can theoretically carry Topol-M and Bulava missiles with or without decoys?
2. What power (in kT) can these warheads possess ?
The number of warheads usually mentioned is three, although some people would say seven or even ten (which I would seriously doubt in the case of Topol-M). As for warhead yield, I would guess it could be in the range of 500 kT. But I don't think it really matters.
Ok. so I understand that maximum warheads number on Topol-M is 3x500kT and on Bulava is 6-10x500kT. But I'd like to know how these missiles are accurate especially in mobile wersion?
I aslo heard about third missile called RSS-40 "Kuryer". It was designing during late 1080's and was abandoned when USSR collapsed. It was probably succesor of Topol-M (smaller, more accurate and cheaper) and smiliar to US Migdetman concept. Is it possible to revitalize this project now? Do you have more informations about this missile?
I am interested in "Kuryer" because I suppose that Topol-M is more and more old design. First and foremost it is a very large with its TEL in mobile version and thus very easy to detect and destroy by US PGMs. I think that "Kurier" is almost three times smaller (by its weight - 15 tons and length - 15 m) so it can be carried by standard truck and therefore fast change its location! I don't know its throw-weight, probably "Kuryer" couldn't carry MIRV warheads but with single "hipersonic maneuvable warhead" it will be perfect: effective and undetectable strategic weapon! A few hundreds of such missiles could pose a complete Russian deterrence alone!
I don't think "Kur'er" could be brought back now. What would be the point? There is a mobile version of Topol-M. Given that the missile was fairly small, I would doubt it could be MIRVed.
But I posted you earlier that mobile Topol-M is a very detectable and thus potentially easy to destroy missile system. Look at its weight: 100 tons (Topol-M+TEL). Such complex is mobile only in theory! Analog "Kuryer" complex could weigh maximum 35 tons not mentioned its dimensions! I think that US recon and tracking systems like satellites, AWACS, JSTARS, UAV etc. can provide nearly real time aquisition and targeting data for US PGMs. Besides how many mobile Topol-M will be deployed in 2012? I suppose that only 30-40 missiles. If all mobile SS-25 Topol withdraws to that time, Russia will have only 40 mobile complexes. It is a very low number and thus very risky especially when Toplol-M is only single warhead missile. With "Kuryer" Russia can deploy many more mobile ICBMs, much more secure than Topol-M!
It's not clear why Topol-M would be easier to detect than, say, Kur'er - the difference in size would not be all that big. And I don't see why the rate of production of a smaller missile would be higher than that of Topol-M. Size is hardly a limiting factor here.
The answer is very simple:
1. In Russia would be only 30-40 such monsters like Topol-M's TEL or about 100000 ordinary trucks similiar to "Kurier" TEL. Well: Could US recon systems find differences between truck and "Kuryer" TEL? It is practically impossible!
2. "Kuryer" must be cheaper than Topol-M because less materials are required to build them.
What would prevent Russia from building 100000 Topol-M-looking trucks? Besides, a missile that is twice as light would be only 25% smaller. Hardly a difference worth dumping the existing missile in favor of a new one.
As for the price, I would seriously doubt that it grows linearly with weight or size.
Russia needn't build any trucks because in Russia is now 100000 or more such trucks. Russia must build "Kuryers" on TELs similiar to these trucks! What will US find differences between Kuryer's TEL, which looks like any other truck? US would have to destroy all trucks in Russia to be sure destoying all "Kuriers"! It is impossible task!
As for price: I am sure that "Kuryer's" TEL will be much less expensive than Topol-M mammoth TEL because it bases on universal truck chassis!
If you are trying to say that Kur'er could have been deployed on ordinary trucks (or similar), you are simply wrong.
"Kuryer" should manage to place not on small truck but on TIR like truck. Such tracks are also very much in Russia especially those which supply you with western food. Let US finding those "right" trucks!
Besides Russia placed two "Iskander" SRBMs on one TEL which is also ordinary truck called "Astrolog". So missile mass can't be an obstacle.
As for "Kuryer" length I discover revolutionary concept how to solve this problem! It is necessary to divide missile for two stages and keep them on one TEL. Prior to launch both stages must be connected and that is all! It is a solution similiar to already created Russian man portable SAM launcher Igla-S and old ICBM SS-13 which first and second stage were connected just in silo. Well, you have an experience thus let's do it comrades!
I don't know where you getting your information about Kurier and its TEL truck. I haven't seen anything that would suggest that it could have been transported on a regular truck.