The Sarmat program that is expected to produce a new "heavy" ICBM, appears to have hit some kind of a bump. Of course, it's hard to know it for certain--these things don't get a lot of coverage--but there are a few signs that may suggest that the program is in some kind of trouble.
The first sign was the delay with be first ejection tests--they were moved from 2015 to the end of 2016 and now to 2017 (for all we know, this may be the end of 2017). The delay was sort of explained by a problem with the test silo, but that explanation never sounded very convincing.
Another sign is something Shoygu said when he visited Krasmash earlier this month [UPDATE: There was no visit in January 2017]. He promised that the ministry of defense will demand weekly reports on the progress with development of "prospective strategic missile systems" that are built at Krasmash. The idea, he said, is to check that the project meets the milestones that were set at the end of 2016, when these milestones were adjusted. That's pretty harsh and looks like an extraordinary measure to me.
This is all circumstantial, but it does appear that the tests of Sarmat were supposed to begin at the end of 2016, but had to be moved to 2017 for reasons that have nothing to do with the test silo. Something may not be working at Krasmash.
UPDATE 02/01/2017: Shoygu again confirmed that Krasmash is behind the schedule with some projects.
UPDATE 04/01/2017: The ejection test is unlikely to happen before June 2017.
UPDATE 06/08/2017: Shoygu visited Krasmash on 06/06/17, apparently to check on Sarmat. Reports are that the test will happen in June 2017.
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This is interesting Pavel, especially considering this program likely has top priority in terms of ICBM development programs (given the current political climate). As a program that is intended to form the backbone of the Strategic Rocket Forces a delay or failure here would be significant.
It also seems that Sarmat is looking more and more like a deep upgrade of the R-36M2/RS-20. Multiple sources indicate that the first stage engines will indeed be the RD-274's used on the R-36M2. Launch weight also looks to be in the range of 120 to 180 tons instead of the 100 tons originally stated.
Two more signs in support of this version:
1) It was already the second Shoygu's visit to Krasmash for the last half a year:
http://www.krasm.com/news/allnews.aspx?DocId=8875&ItemId=23
2) The CEO who was transferred to Moscow a year ago was returned back to Krasmash:
http://www.krasm.com/news/allnews.aspx?DocId=9114&ItemId=23
http://www.krasm.com/news/allnews.aspx?DocId=5122&ItemId=23
This article from last fall seems to confirm the weight of Sarmat as being around 170 tons rather than 100 tons while using the same RD-274 propulsion system as the RS-20:
"That includes a better power-to-weight ratio. The Voyevoda weighs over 210 tons – the Sarmat —20% lighter."
https://sputniknews.com/military/201609071045062797-sarmat-ahead-of-schedule-analysis/
This article from last fall seems to confirm the weight of Sarmat as being around 170 tons rather than 100 tons while using the same RD-274 propulsion system as the RS-20:
"That includes a better power-to-weight ratio. The Voyevoda weighs over 210 tons – the Sarmat —20% lighter."
This would give Sarmat a thrust to weight ratio (and therefore acceleration) equal to or better than the Minuteman III, Topol/Topol-M and other solid fuel ICBM's.
https://sputniknews.com/military/201609071045062797-sarmat-ahead-of-schedule-analysis/
The Sputnik retells the main theses of the journalist Vladimir Tuchkov's articles:
http://svpressa.ru/war21/article/155968/
http://svpressa.ru/war21/article/165721/
I would trust these theses not in everything.
For example, in originals of these articles in Russian Mr. Tuchkov attributes to the hypersonic object 4202 fantastic speeds M=17-22 or M=12-17 (quite so: he reports two different speed ranges in two different articles... sic!) that frankly isn't true. And his data on "210-20%" tons needs additional confirmation.
Alexander,
Thank you for the links. A Very interesting discrepancy. I will be very curious to see what the real numbers are and how much they differ from Mr. Tuchkov's.