The Strategic Rocket Forces released an update on the missile life extensions. Service life of R-36M2/SS-18 is said to be extended to 27 years, Topol/SS-25 - to 26 years. Also, the Rocket Forces expect UR-100NUTTH to serve 36 years and Topol-M - at least 15 years (this is likely to be extended later).
These numbers don't quite match what the Rocket Forces said before. Back in 2012, R-36M2 was said to be good for 30 years. Moreover, it was hoped that the missile could stay in service for 33 years. It is down to 27 years now. I wouldn't rule out that the reduction was a result of the recent events in Ukraine, which made it more difficult to count on Yuzhmash representatives to service the missiles.
Topol seems to get a cut as well - with the 26 years service life it would remain on duty until about 2018 - the last missiles were deployed in 1992. Earlier it was expected to remain active until 2021. It's possible, however, that some Topol missiles were manufactured and deployed after 1992, so it may well be that it would indeed stay until 2021.
The confidence in UR-100NUTTH, on the other hand, seems to be growing - it got an extension from 35 (reported in December 2013) to 36 years.
The book
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The UR100 are older and less powerful (and therefore reasonably replaced by relatively small Yarses). Moreover, R36 series prove to be very reliable (the UTTHs that fly for Dnepr, are already not less than 27 years old, some of them probably 30).
So I would say it is extremely likely that the R36-M2 are decommissioned due to the Ukraine support ban.
27 years means they start decommissioning next year, come on, why such a hurry :-)
Rogozin stated so often they the RF industry is ready to take over the missiles support, not sure anybody suspected that the "support" would be performed in THAT manner :-)
PS. There is a link to a book in Russian Wikipedia, that states that the last Topol were deployed in 1994. I could not find the book in the web though...
Either that or there is a lot of confidence in getting the Sarmat fielded in significant numbers by 2020...
I have also heard rumors that the Sarmat may be an upgrade/modernization of the R36-M2 rather than a completely new missile. Have you heard anything to that effect, Pavel?
I think it's very unlikely. I was told that the equipment that Yuzhmash used to make R-36M missiles was fairly unique and once it was lost there is no practical way to recover it.
Jon, I doubt there ll be a single Sarmat tested and ready for regular deployment by 2020, and I'd bet there ll be none by the year 2018, when the newest R36Ms are to be decommissioned. So they ll either still find a way to support R36M, or just replace them with Yarses and say that this was planned from the very beginning :-D
It is interesting that within this well-known project UR-100NUTTH service life to be extended to 42 (!!!) years:
https://zakupki.kontur.ru/31401261546
http://multitender.ru/tenders/detail/9226306
http://keytender.ru/tender/198250
So, they are going to use old SS-19 missiles. Amazing... On the other hand, the engines have stayed dry all this time, so extending service life shouldn't be that difficult.