Russian press is quoting an unnamed source in the General Staff as saying that the first RS-26 ballistic missiles will be deployed at the Irkutsk missile division in 2015. Flight tests of the missile are expected to be completed in December 2014. The deployment date has been mentioned before, but the place is new.
RS-26, also known as Rubezh, is the controversial new missile, which appears to be an intermediate-range missile based on (the first two stages of) RS-24 Yars ICBM.
Deployment in Irkutsk is probably somewhat surprising. It was often assumed that because of its intermediate range RS-26 is a missile fir Europe - sort of new incarnation of SS-20. Irkutsk, however, is pretty far from Europe, so if we assume that RS-26 has a range on the order of 5000 km, then the deployment appears to be directed at China. This would be generally in line with Russia's complains about the INF Treaty - the main one being that other countries (including China) are allowed to have them while Russia and the United States are not. But if I were the Chinese I would not consider this deployment a particularly friendly gesture.
Irkutsk used to be one of the Topol/SS-25 divisions, but these missiles have been withdrawn from the division for some time. Some may still remain, but they are likely to be gone very soon. Indeed, at the basing area of one of the regiments (below) all Krona shelters (used by Topol) have been dismantled, but the base looks active otherwise.
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Interesting! There is another launch site at 52.570345° 104.808707° which had it's garages removed meanwhile (see on Yandeks).
I always thought that these both sites were in preparation to take the RS-24...as well as Nishny Taigil and Novosibirsk.
At the end of 2013 Nishny Taigil had 6 RS-24 and Novosibirsk 9 of them. They need 21 RS-24 to bring them to a full two regiment service. Maybe the two sites in preparation at Irkutsk will indeed see 18 RS-26 in the future.
Do you expect to see the same kind of Krona Shelters as for RS-24? If so they could easily arrange a mixture of one regiment RS-24 and RS-26 at each of the three bases
Cheers from Bernd Reuter
I think the Russians have officially denied that RS-26 is an Intermediate Range Missile or any type banned under INF treaty.
If I recollect the last test was at range more than 5500 km
That test was with reduced payload.
RS-26 has a reported weight of about 36 tons; quite similar to the Bulava SLBM. So, with a similar payload and fuel technology, it should have a similar range; 8000 km. Definitively an ICBM.
The ‘hidden IRBM story’ is just a bluff from some ultra-conservative American folks.
I'm not sure we know that its weight is about 36 tonnes. I don't remember seeing any reliable numbers.
>That test was with reduced payload.
Here we have the literal definition of "correlation does not imply causation".
The press release for the 2012 test (http://vpk-news.ru/news/1087/) mentioned "a test RV", which the conspiracy theorists somehow extrapolated to "this distance is only achievable with a singe RV". Which is ridiculous.
The deployment location, Irkutsk, is what causes me to doubt that the RS-26 is an IRBM. Recent events seem to indicate a strengthening of ties with China.
Well, that "single RV in 2012" is not the only data point. There are others. It was officially said that the missile is based on RS-24 and that the weight of the TEL with the missile is 80 tonnes against 120 tonnes for RS-24. I just don't see how you cut an ICBM "in half" (remove one stage) and keep its range.
Nobody is suggesting same range.
But if RS-24 can indeed go to 10,000 km at full throw weight, there is no reason why RS-24 can't put the same 1.2 ton throw weight to 6,000 km.
It may fulfill the same mission of the good old RSD-10 Pioneer but even with a 5501 km range is an ICBM.
Maybe. But 6000 km from Irkutsk doesn't get you very far. Unless the target is China you need about 8000 km range to get anywhere from there.
Yes, and?
Why shouldn't China and Pakistan and India and DPRK be valid targets? This isn't a US-Russia only dance.
Those are nuclear weapon states that require deterrence equal to that of the US, if not in numbers then in weapon type. And if someone wants to spin it as a move unfriendly to China, well, you can ask the Chinese an equally valid question: what purpose do their MRBM and IRBM serve?
I see nothing out-of-place or policy-shifting in this deployment.
I find the RS-26 ballistic missile deployment at Irkutsk interesting too. “Anonymous”, you can rest easy. The “ultra-conservative American folks” don’t seem to care much. (smile)
If the single warhead RS-26 is an ICBM, its numbers count against New START. That’s really all the Americans care about. If Russia wants to put three warheads on the missile, and it can’t hit the United States, but still counts against the New START numbers, so much the better.
Frank Shuler
USA
Plans for RS-26 deployment were easily and smoothly postponed to 2016:
http://ria.ru/defense_safety/20141225/1040084338.html
Thank you. Any word on where it will be deployed? Irkutsk and Vypolzovo have been mentioned.