The Strategic Rocket Forces announced today that two regiments of RS-24 Yars missiles began combat duty in Novosibirsk and Nizhniy Tagil divisions on December 25, 2013. It's interesting that the Rocket Forces representative was quoted as saying that the missiles began "experimental combat duty". This is a bit strange for a missile that has been in service from some time.
These are apparently the 15 Yars missiles that were expected to enter service by the end of the year. In an earlier announcement, the Rocket Forces said that the Nizhniy Tagil regiment is incomplete - right now it has only six ICBMs.
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I heard that Regiment 357 was transferred to RS-24 in Novosobirsk.
Pavel, do you know what Regiment is in transition at Nishni Taigil?
Cheers
Pavel, with all these additions, is there any chance of updating Current Status? The information there is fairly outdated.
I'll try to do an update in the next few weeks. On Yars, yes, it looks like it's the 357th regiment in Novosibirsk. I don't have anything on Nizhniy Tagil, though. I have three regiments that appear to be active there - 142, 433, and 804. If my notes are correct, the 142th still had Topol missiles in February 2013, so maybe Yars is in one of the other two.
Rather than update the strategic nuclear force levels on an annual or longer basis, why not provide real-time updates to the Current Status? It would be good place to consolidate your notes. A date and footnotes reflecting recent changes would be added to the Current Status display.
Well, Pavel already promised to provide an update.
By now we only can summarize some data based on what is published for the single weapon systems.
My personal notes show the follwing for the end of 2013:
331 operational missile systems of five different types, carrying up to 1100 warheads.
R-36M2 (SS-18): 56 (10 warheads -> 560) at 2 sites
UR-100NUTTH (SS-19): 20 (6 warheads -> 120) at 1 site
Topol-M silo (SS-27): 60 (1 warhead -> 60) at 1 site
Topol-M mobile (SS-27): 18 (1 warhead -> 18) at 1 site
RS-24 mobile (SS-29): 33 (6 warheads -> 198) at 3 sites
Topol (SS-25): 144 (1 warhead -> 144) at 6 sites
Total: 331 msl with 1100 warheads at 11 sites
So let's wait for Pavels work
Cheers and a happy new year for all readers
One thing here I am not completely clear on. Is the move to multiple warhead RS-24 and RS-26 from single warhead Topol-M based solely on the launch cost-per-warhead savings? Not only will 6 Topol-M will have a vastly improved chance of penetrating defenses than one RS-24 with 6 smaller warheads, but the loss of one RS-24 results in the loss of 6 warheads. With the ever lower numbers of warheads allowed, the number of launchers becomes a serious issue when talking about survivability.
If Russia intends to stay with sub-megaton yield warheads (as it appears to be doing), why not have the entire ICBM force be composed of single warhead Topol-M's? The extra cost in launchers would be greatly offset by the elimination of all these new missile types, including the liquid-fueled heavy. With talk of reducing total strategic warhead levels to 1100, this seems like the more logical option.
Put differently, If ICBM warhead levels are dropped to ~500 (based on the proposed 1100 number being thrown around) That would equate to less than 75 launchers assuming a mix of RS-24, RS-26 and new 10 warhead liquid fueled heavy. That is an incredibly risky strategy compared to, say, 500 Topol-M with 500 warheads. Any halfway decent boost or midcourse phase ABM system would seriously compromise the viability of such a deterrent structure.
Multiple warheads only make sense when the number of warheads allowed is essentially unlimited, as during the Cold War. This is far from the reality of today. The only other possible reason could be the inability to afford enough launchers, which with the numbers we are discussing and the various launcher development programs underway, I find hard to believe.
I think the calculation has always been different - if, say, six missiles were to survive, then it would mean 36 warheads on MIRVed ones and only six if the missiles are single-warhead. Nobody cares very much about missile defense - people who are in this business know that it won't be able to do much anyway.
"On Yars, yes, it looks like it's the 357th regiment in Novosibirsk"
No, it does not look like.
http://novosibirsk.rfn.ru/rnews.html?id=273825&cid=
"Первым в сибирской дивизии перевооружение прошёл звенигородский полк"
This is interesting. I had a source that said that it was the 357th regiment (12th ploshchadka) that was being converted to Yars as of the end of 2012. The 428th regiment is the 13th ploshchadka. If it is converted, it's this one - http://goo.gl/maps/ADUpD - the shelters had been dismantled by 6/26/2012. No construction is see at the two other sites: http://goo.gl/maps/Kd97m (I have it as the 12th ploshchadka, 327th regiment) and http://goo.gl/maps/dWTJR (21st, 382nd).
So, it does appear that the information about the 357th regiment was wrong. The only possibility that I see is that the regiment was temporarily converted to a training center - something like that was done in Irkutsk. But that seems unlikely as well.
I think you are right with the 428 regiment (formerly this was the site of 773 regiment - now in Teykovo).
The second Regiment will be probably here 55.368883° 83.233664° (garages already removed - see GE & Yandeks). As far as I know this once was occupied by 826 Regiment.
There is no construction work at
382 regiment: 55.318361° 83.167790°
357 regiment: 55.324710° 82.942466°
? regiment: 55.379202° 82.920019°