Strategic Rocket Forces conducted a successful flight test of "a prototype of a new ICBM." The test took place at 21:45 MSK (17:45 UTC) on June 6, 2013 from a mobile launcher deployed at the Kapustin Yar test site. The warhead waswarheads were reported to have successfully reached its target at the Sary-Shagan site.
This appears to be a new test of the "medium-class" solid-propellant ICBM that is sometimes referred to as Avangard. Previous test of the missile took place in October 2012, also from Kapustin Yar.
UPDATE: As Alexander Stukalin pointed in the comments, it has been reported deployment of the new ICBM is expected to begin in 2014. Before that the Rocket Forces plan to conduct one more test launch of the missile. The earlier plan was to begin deployment in 2015. In 2014 the Rocket Forces were expected to begin combined test of the missile. Plans could change, of course, especially if the development program appears successful (although, there is always a chance to go back to the original schedule). Also in the news is the new name of the missile - it is now known as Rubezh, not Avangard.
A few more points - the Rocket Forces representative said that the missile carried several warheads. He also said that it was the fourth test of the missile - which is in agreement with what has been reported so far - the first one in September 2011 (failure), second in May 2012, third in October 2012, and now the fourth. This doesn't look like a very intensive test program, especially given that two of the three successful tests were conducted from Kapustin Yar to Sary-Shagan - far from a nominal range. So, my guess is that it's a not particularly deep upgrade of the Topol-M/Yars line of ICBMs.
Finally, as far as I can tell, this missile is an unlikely candidate for anything "hypersonic" - that thing is too big to fit in a standard silo, not to mention a mobile launcher.
The book
Comments
Calling it a missile defense killer?:
http://en.rian.ru/military_news/20130607/181558509/Russia-Tests-Missile-Defense-Killer.html
any specifics?
Today the General Staff reported to Putin that deployment of the new ICBM (codenamed as Rubezh) will begin in 2014:
http://ria.ru/defense_safety/20130607/942136785.html
Yousaf: I stopped taking this kind of statements seriously about ten (or was it 20?) years ago. Everything is a "missile defense killer" in Russia these days.
Alexander: So, we have the name of the missile now. Thank you for the link - extremely useful (as always).
Re-entry at Sary-Shagan/Balkhash would imply that the tests involved a new/improved payload, because of all the missile defense measurement equipment in Kazakhstan.
Re-entry in Kura/Chizha would, conversely, imply that that the test involved general range and/or flight characteristic measurements.
At least, that's how I usually analyze the significance of different starting and ending positions in missile tests.
artjomh: I agree. It's just if it were a completely new missile a few more long-range tests would be prudent.
Yousaf: "lost in translation". They meant it's designed to be particularly adept at evading BMD. Like everything in Russian defense speak today, as Pavel said.
Gentlemen:
Is the new Rubezh ICBM a “successor” to the RS-24 Yars? Will the Rubezh be put into series production in place of the RS-24? There were earlier Kremlin comments that the RS-24 would be placed in silos; perhaps replacing the 35 or so UR-100NUTTH (SS-19s) at Kozelsk and Tatishchevo. Then other SRF comments suggested the Yars would not be deployed in silos at all. Do we have any clarifications? Thanks!
Frank Shuler
USA
Hello,
on the offical www.mil.ru they have an article and a picture of a missile. Does anybody dare to say whether this is for illustartion only or the actual missile.
http://function.mil.ru/news_page/country/more.htm?id=11769644@egNews
I would doubt it that the photo is real. Russian news services have a habit of using random photos to illustrate their stories. The missile on the photo looks a bit like Topol, so it's likely it is not the new missile.
to Spike Doom:
Photo from Russian MoD site is the old SS-25 Topol. But for example the official Russian MoD newspaper Krasnaya Zvezda (Red Star) illustrates the top article about the new Rubezh ICBM by the photo of the old liquid SS-19:
http://www.redstar.ru/images/files/2013/06-2013/kz080699.pdf
:-)
So if the new ICBM is Rubezh what about Avangard missile ?
As far as I can tell, Rubezh is what was called Avangard. It's the same missile. I would note that I don't remember the name Avangard used in any official statements - it was just someone's guess.
Avangard was originally named in a Serdyukov interview when the State Armament Program was debated several years ago. It was also sometimes referred to as Avangard-R (Avangard-Rubezh?) in military press releases.
My guess is that Avangard and Rubezh are both valid codenames for different parts of the system (e.g. Avangard is the entire launch complex, while Rubezh is the missile). Just an educated guess, though.
Pavel, Col. A.Milykovsky, Head of the 4th Central Research Institute (MoD), wrote about development and preparation for flight tests of the Avangard-R missile complex in his article in the Sputnik newspaper:
http://yubik.net.ru/publ/23-1-0-4769
Yes, indeed. But it does seem to be the same missile.
Pavel, we can debate on this subject or round it...
What new missile declared in Russia before there were messages about the new Rubezh?
1) Avangard(-R) (unclear thing from Serdyukov confirmed by Col. Milykovsky - see above).
2) 'Heavy liquid ICBM' (already more or less well-known the Sarmat R&D project).
3) 'Prototype of the new mobile ICBM' which tested already several times.
4) And оne more: Academician Solomonov (MIT general designer) spoke about new ICBMs with a 'new method of warheads targeting' (without the 'bus'):
http://rbase.new-factoria.ru/news/yusolomonov-o-novom-yadernom-boevom-osnashchenii-rossiyskih-mbr/
But now there is a question: where here new 'command missile' (like that which was used in Perimetr system)?
I though that Rubezh fits the timeline that was usually associated with Avangard - Milykovsky talked about preparations for flight tests in 2011 - the missile was first tested in September 2011. Serdyukov mentioned Avangard around that time too. Other sources mentioned that Avangard will be tested some time in the fall of 2011. Assuming that it was the same missile that was tested four times now, Avangard is Rubezh. I see that there is a reason to be cautious, but at the time this seems to be the most logical conclusion.
to Frank Shuler:
According to official Russian MoD information:
1) Rearmament of the Tatishchevo Division is finished:
http://ria.ru/defense_safety/20130418/933361106-print.html?ria=pd5atq4ckbc4lr1m6o9dmjuhule22a2l
2) In Kozelsk construction and installation works for silo Yars proceed. RVSN commander Col. Gen. Karakayev inspected the Division in March:
http://function.mil.ru/news_page/country/more.htm?id=11676539@egNews
Besides:
Military personnel of Tagil Division started retraining for the mobile Yars on May 13. From May 20 to June 22 more than 200 officers and ensigns of Novosibirsk Division will pass already the second stage of retraining for the mobile Yars service. In Irkutsk Division preparatory works on rearmament will be also begun:
http://function.mil.ru/news_page/country/more.htm?id=11746702@egNews
Alexander: I'm wondering how many Topols are still in service. Have they been withdrawn from N. Tagil and Novosibirsk?
On a related issue - this article has some interesting numbers http://vpk.name/news/91158_sostyazanie_kilotonnogo_klassa.html. For example, 186 out of 1092 RVSN warheads are new. Any idea how credible these are? 1092 looks suspiciously like the number on this site (which is outdated and probably wrong), but you never know.
Pavel:
Article original see here:
http://www.vpk-news.ru/articles/16288
But I don't know, who is Mr. Ketonov and how he counts the warheads.
In his last article it was signed that he is Engineer-Colonel and veteran of the Afghan War (!?):
http://www.vpk-news.ru/articles/9316
So Russia has a new type of nuclear warhead for Bulava, Yars, Sinieva and new ICBM? The last US nuclear strategic warhead is W-88.
The Topol M has a new 500 kT warhead?
to Michal:
See here:
http://www.russiadefence.net/t2292-russian-nuclear-weapons-industry
Alexander thanks for the link. I think that the new Rubezh ICBM is a Yars missile with new warheads targeting system without the PBV. Each warhead has a invidual PBV system.
New Charge/Design for N weapons was confirmed officially by 12th Main Directorate of the Defense Ministry, Colonel Yuri owl
http://www.redstar.ru/index.php/2011-07-25-15-55-32/item/4428-garantyi-yadernogo-schita
New types of nuclear weapons (nuclear warheads) have smaller size and weight, high reliability. The use of the latest generation of microelectronic control systems greatly increased accuracy and, as a result, the effectiveness of the combat mission. Using sophisticated algorithms, the exchange of information ensures the safety of guarantees of protection from enemy electronic warfare.
Yars and Topol-M are Gliding Body Warheads (boost-glide vehical ) that travel at very high hypersonic speed in the upper atmosphere hence tend to have non ballistic trajectory.
http://www.hindu.com/2004/02/22/stories/2004022202391200.htm
Colonel-General Yuri Baluyevsky, first deputy chief of the General Staff of the Russian armed forces "The new flying vehicle is capable of both flying along ballistic trajectory at hypersonic speed and changing both altitude and direction of its flight in the atmosphere
Avangard-Rubezh have new generation of RV that does not need a BUS and would have its own powered RV with guidance making it far more manouverable and accurate compared to hypersonic boost-glide vehical
to Austin Joseph:
I don't know about what Mr.Baluyevsky spoke, but Mr. Putin (according to your link) spoke about absolutely other warhead for absolutely other missile. :-)
to Alexander Stukalin
Mr Baluyevsky and Putin are describing the same thing but Putin the politician is adding more colours to his words.
Yuri Solmonov had mentioned in an interview that Warhead for Rubezh was first tested in 2010.
to Austin Joseph:
Putin didn't specify about what missile he spoke. But it is possible to remember, what one more missile was launched in February, 2004 - in day when Putin was in Plesetsk...
http://www.hindu.com/2004/02/22/stories/2004022202391200.htm
Here is the account of that exercise from this blog: http://russianforces.org/blog/2004/02/russian_strategic_forces_took.shtml. Whatever that new warhead was, it was tested on a SS-19 from Baykonur, not from Plesetsk.
Likely what was tested during that period was an experimental warhead/RV design for RS-24 on a SS-19 much like they proof tested Rubezh warhead in 2010 on experimental Topol.
A rival design bureau head during that period mentioned that that RV later burnt in the atmosphere
Coming back in late 2011 Karakayev spoke of manouvering warhead identical to Baluyevsky and Putin spoke about and that it being demonstrated to US intel , its also a certainty that Bulava and RS-24 carries an identical warhead from Karakayev statements , not such surprise there as both missile are from same design bureau with almost identical throw up weight.
http://www.globalresearch.ca/the-real-dangers-of-war-new-russian-strategic-missiles-can-penetrate-u-s-missile-shield/28234
#######
“The capabilities of such combat means were demonstrated to U.S. technical control means during the trials of the Yars ground-based mobile missile system and the Bulava sea-based missile system. It also concerns hypersonic warheads capable of performing altitude and trajectory maneuvers,” he told journalists.
“The new missiles have characteristics that allow them to stay invulnerable at all sections of their flight,” Karakayev said.
#######
to Austin Joseph:
I simply would tell you so:
a) Rubezh;
b) Yars/Bulava/Liner warheads;
c) and about what Mr Putin spoke in February, 2004
...are absolutely different things.
Alexander , Its nice to have you hear and my Congratulations on your work on one of the most well researched story "Russian Nuclear Weapons Industry: Alive and Kicking"
As far as Rubezh , Yars/Bulava , Liner and what Putin spoke about I agree these are quite different from what I have read across on this blog and on other news , I would summarise as
a)Yars/Bulava/Topol-M - Hypersonic Manouvering Boost Glide Vehical , Yars/Bulava with smaller size and yeald while Topol-M with single large size and yeald
b) Rubezh - Independent Guided,with Active Propulsion,Manouvering Warhead ..not sure if it uses Scramjet Propulsion for a powered flight in atmosphere ( ~ 100 km altitude )
c) Sineva/Liner : Almost the same with older Passive MIRV , Liner though is designed to carry Warhead of different size/yeald/numbers in a flexible payload adapter and better countermeasures else no different from Sineva , Never came across any report that speaks of it carrying Manouvering Warhead of MIT Fame.
d) Not sure what was tested when Putin was around at 2004 but since SS-19 was used as a platform to loft the RV it would indicate a larger payload something that would come in handy with new Liquid Fuel ICBM , Some reports mentioned Igla Scramjet vehical was tested.
As your write up mentions new weapons design , likely they have designed new Thermonuclear Device without the need to test it other then perhaps Computer Simulation and verifying at Laser Ignition Facility at their Weapons Design Center, The newer Warhead Weight/Yeald ratio is a grey area and would remain so but ability to design small warhead with equal or better yeald would gives greater flexibility for RV design that carries them.
That said what I stated above is based on what I read and understood I could be way off mark too.
Interview with retd SRF chief Colonel-General Viktor Esin on why Hypersonic Vehical are difficult to intercept.
http://vpk.name/news/74052_otstavaniya_rossii_net.html
Modernization of the Kozelsk silo positions for the Yars:
http://www.spetsstroy.ru/photo/249/
Thank you. This is very interesting. Looks like some really serious work - I sort of expected that they will just use old silos without significant changes.