On October 29, 2010 at 05:10 MSK (01:10 UTC), the Dmitry Donskoy submarine of the Northern Fleet performed a successful test launch of the Bulava ballistic missile from the White Sea toward the Kura test range in Kamchatka. A Ministry of Defense representative reported that the test was successful and the warheads reached their targets.
This is the 14th test of the Bulava missile and the second success in a row after a series of failed launches in 2008-2009 (the first 2010 test took place on October 7, 2010). Russia was planning to conduct three flight tests in 2010 - two from Dmitry Donskoy and one - from the Yuri Dolgorukiy submarine of the Project 955 class.
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Pavel, how many warheads exactly does Bulava have? Ria Novosti reports 10 mirv and a 8000km range. I can't believe such tiny rocket could launch more warheads than it bigger cousin RS-24 ot mirved Topol-M.BTW is RS-24 a new rocket or like I just said a mirved Topol-M? That makes it two questions.
Thanks.
It was listed in START MOU as having six warheads. I doubt it will carry ten. It's not completely out of question, of course, but these warheads would have to be rather tiny. I had a post with some data on yield and weight.
As for RS-24, it is indeed a MIRVed Topol-M.
One more question please. The 3rd stage is classified as "liquid". 1 is this stage same (w/minor modifications) than RS-24? 2 is this a hypergolic stage or Kerosene?
I'm not sure about a liquid-fuel third stage. I would guess it's the bus that has liquid fuel, not the third stage. As for the propellant, I haven't seen any information on that.
Hi people. I was wondering, is it possible for Russia to develop a warhead similar to the American W88 with a yield of up to 400+ while remaining small enough to fit into an SLBM? Is it absolutely necessary to have an actual nuclear testing to be able to develop such a design?
Reader
An excellent question. I’m not sure of a single warhead deployed today that hasn’t been nuclear tested. Mathematical models are great for determining diminished yield or component life but designing & building a nuclear warhead from scratch from only imperial data to my knowledge hasn’t been done; unless in China? (sincerely doubt it)
Even the “new” US proposed warhead project back in 2007, the “The Reliable Replacement Warhead Program” (RRW) from Lawrence Livermore National Lab was based on test data from the W-89 warhead; a warhead underground tested back in the 1980‘s but never introduced to the US arsenal.
Good topic for conversation.
Frank Shuler
USA
I guess Russia has such a Warhead already. RT-23UTTH missiles had a payload of about 4 t according to globalsecurity, giving the upper weight limit for the 10 warheads at about 400 kg each. Thats comparable to the W87/88.
Martin
The 13 and 14 launches are declared sucessful for Bulava, but it is very curious that no picture or video were published to celebrate these events.
I read a russian navy boat with journalists was present at least the for the 13 launch...but no picture at all. To deter you have to show that your missile is efficient, without video ou picture you can doubt about that ?
Frank Shuler
>designing & building a nuclear warhead from scratch from only imperial data to my knowledge hasn’t been done; unless in China? (sincerely doubt it)
Israel ;-) (although with some smart assistance from the US and France)
Cheers
bernd reuter
I’ll bet when the factual history of the Israeli nuclear program is finally written, we’ll learn the mathematical design models and components were all French and the actual nuclear warhead testing occurred in South Africa. Now, that will be a book I’ll be very interested in buying on Amazon and reading. (smile)
Frank Shuler
USA
Hi Frank! Thanks for your response. Well I think you are right about the "French Connection" but the US transferred test know how (maybe by some "friends" in the Pentagon) too.
Seymour Hersh wrote about a test seen occasionally by that Vela Satellite back in the late 70ties. He claimed that it was one of three tests with small artillery shell type bombs which happened on old ships in order to fool tests for remaining radiation. But only three tests to design a complete arsenal of very different type of warheads ;-) ?
The Vastrap camp [Kalahari Desert ( -27.831907° 21.631943° )] tests back in 77 were cancelled before they even could be performed due to international pressure. And the rumors (e.g. by some Arab Knesset Members) about so called "zero yield tests" in the Negev ( probably here 29.972728° 34.904839° ) would be not sufficient either to acchiev such an arsenal. - Well but as the Israelis always said: they have no nuclear weapons...
Cheers
Alexis
We would have to assume the United States knows if the Bulava test was successful. I suspect the Kura test range in Kamchatka is under constant US surveillance; technical and human. However, I agree the lack of press coverage for a successful launch is puzzling. The market for such press coverage is domestic, the Russian people themselves. Why not publicize the success? Any thoughts?
Frank Shuler
USA
bernd reuter
The relationship between Israel and France has always been interesting. After the Six-Day War in 1967, France instituted a total arms embargo on Israel; freezing deliver on 50 new Mirage jets. Mossad pulled a coup. They found a willing source in Switzerland and “procured” the needed technical documents that would allow Jerusalem to build Mirage clones. France held five missile gun boats in Cherbourg that were being built for the Israeli Navy but not yet delivered. Again, Mossad directed a successful plot to spirit these ships away to Israel; drama that intrigued the watching world. Later, much later, we learn Paris and the Direction Générale de la Sécurité Extérieure (DGSE) organized the entire events. That, for example, Dassault supplied all the necessary parts & components (avionics and engines) for Israel to assemble the Dagger (Mirage clone) jets and the “compromised” Swiss aeronautical engineer actually was an agent for Paris.
I think when that book is written, the Vela Incident will have Israeli fingerprints all over it. Perhaps Dieter Gerhardt still has a story to tell. In any event, I really don’t think the Pentagon was that involved in the Israeli nuclear program. In what can only be thought of as a colossal failure of American Intelligence, I don’t think the US had a real clue Israel had “the bomb” until long after the 1973 Yom Kippur War; late 1970's.
Frank Shuler
USA
Frank, I don't think the pentagon was highly involved in the Israeli nuclear program, but they were most certainly completely penetrated by Israeli intelligence.
It was said that Israeli had to be very careful in order to not arouse suspicions by the other intelligence service there in the pentagon, the KGB.
Frank Shuler
The events you described seem to be realistic. But the matter is that despite the fact that the Israelis have the Bomb since the early 70ties their warhead design was dramaticly improved (without further testing).
Regarding the potential of Jericho 3 they will have the option to use a missile range between 5000 - 10000km with different type of yields for MIRVs & MARVs. They field warheads for submarine-based cruise missiles, they have artillery shells, mines and bombs for aircraft. The whole arsenal. - Just with a maximum of three tests? That's very unlikely. As you said "designing & building a nuclear warhead from scratch from only imperial data to my knowledge hasn’t been done".
The help to design both Jericho 2 design (which is totally different from Jericho 1 / MD 620) and several type of warheads needs to have assistance. Data from Pershing II & S-3 design (especially the propulsion technique) and from nuclear tests which at first glance seem to have been French or US Tests were relayed to the Israelis. There are no "miracles" in this field...South Africa just provided some "remotely" cooperation in order to get some profite from it. That means RSA-3 is just a clone of Jericho 2.
But neither the US nor France want to unveil more of their assistance than already known...in a time where they blame Iran to struggle for that toys
AWM
The KGB in the Pentagon? Amazing! I honestly thought the only intelligence service over the last sixty-three years that has spied successfully on the Pentagon was the CIA. (smile) I will concede the point however. Sometimes I wonder how foreign intelligence services can possibly “work the pentagon” without tripping over themselves.
Frank Shuler
USA
bernd reuter
I completely agree with your statements. However, I do wonder where the conclusions lead us. I have no doubt, not necessarily the Pentagon, but the US Department of Energy and its Nuclear Labs have been penetrated by foreign national intelligence services and nuclear weapons information (read testing results and design data) has been compromised. I also agree Israel is in an unique position politically in American circles to have special espionage access to such data. Nevertheless, I just can’t quite accept the notion that any nation would/could building a robust, multi-platform nuclear arsenal on such “stolen” data. Rumors are always heard that Israel has the design and test information from the French Air-Sol Moyenne Por- tée (ASMP) system and that is the basic for their mythical submarine launched cruise missile program. Perhaps the historical precedent for any Jericho warhead did come from the Plateau d'Albion and the S3D. Or perhaps, Israel only has a single design for an airborne bomb tested in South Africa in its arsenal. I guess we’ll have to wait on that book...
Frank Shuler
USA